KB Securities "KOSPI will reach 5000 next year…entering a bull market for the first time in 40 years"

KB Securities publishes 2026 stock strategy annual outlook report

"Entering a major uptrend due to weak dollar·weak oil prices"

KB Securities set next year's annual KOSPI target at 5000 points, citing weak dollar and oil prices as tailwinds. Preferred sectors included semiconductors, nuclear power, electric power, shipbuilding, defense, and securities.

According to the securities industry on the 29th, KB Securities' Research Center released the 'KB 2026 Stock Strategy Annual Outlook' report the day before. KB Securities explained, "This bull market is likely the start of a long-term rising phase that is being reproduced for the first time in 40 years since 1985, when the 'three-lows boom (low dollar·low oil·low interest rates)' occurred, rather than a simple economic rebound."

It added, "If this is truly a secular bull market, investors need to pay attention," emphasizing, "Based on past experience, bull markets usually unfold over about four years, and if timing is missed, one may have to wait 15–20 years."

KB Securities expects that weak dollar and oil prices will ignite KOSPI's upward momentum. KB Securities said, "The combination of dollar weakness and oil price weakness is very rare, and recently, despite dollar weakness, oil prices have remained at low levels, creating a very favorable environment for the stock market," adding, "Accordingly, countries like Korea, which have a high share of imported raw materials, will see improved corporate profitability, accelerating global capital inflows into Korea."

KB Securities stated, "Despite recent gains, the Korean stock market is expected to see further upward drivers from strengthened government capital market revitalization measures and dollar weakness," and added, "From a long-term perspective, we expect the bull market to continue due to valuation reappraisals and continued historical highs in major sectors, so there is ample room for additional KOSPI gains."

Promising sectors for next year were identified as semiconductors, nuclear power, electric power, shipbuilding, and defense. Regarding semiconductors, KB Securities analyzed, "With AI data center investment projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2028, and increases in HBM and DRAM supply, full-scale effects such as the Yongin semiconductor cluster becoming operational are likely from 2028," adding, "Because HBM-centric investment execution makes a rapid increase in DRAM supply difficult, the DRAM market will face supply shortages from next year through the following year."

In addition, the nuclear power sector is expected to benefit as the U.S. focuses on building a nuclear supply chain centered on Westinghouse, and a nuclear cooperation project called 'MANUGA' is reported to be under review in Korea-U.S. trade negotiations.

Jin Young-gi, Hankyung.com reporter young71@hankyung.com