10X Research "Strategy, 70% chance of S&P500 inclusion within the year"

An analysis said that Strategy, a U.S.-listed company holding large amounts of Bitcoin (BTC), has a 70% chance of being included in the S&P500 by the end of the year.

On the 29th (local time), CoinDesk reported that 10X Research said, "Under a Bitcoin fair-value accounting basis, Strategy is expected to record approximately $3.8 billion in valuation gains in the third quarter," adding, "In that case, the probability of inclusion in the S&P500 in December approaches 60~70%." Strategy's third-quarter results are scheduled to be announced on the 30th (local time).

Strategy is the publicly listed company that holds the most Bitcoin among companies worldwide, and it has significantly reduced its purchases over the past month. The company bought only 778 BTC during October, a 78% decrease from September (3,526 BTC).

Despite this slowdown, the report judged that this could be the point at which liquidity returns to the market and a large-scale rally begins. 10X Research said, "Strategy's net asset value (NAV) premium has mostly been unwound, and investor losses have reached $18 billion, but volatility is increasing again," and added, "The risk-reward structure is shifting from downside defense to a phase preparing for future upside."

Meanwhile, Strategy received a 'B-' credit rating from S&P Global. While this corresponds to a speculative grade, this is the first time a Bitcoin-focused financial strategy company has received an official S&P rating. The industry views this case as potentially a new benchmark for traditional finance in evaluating cryptocurrency companies.