Dogecoin long-term holders' selling expands…$0.17 support at risk

Dogecoin (DOGE) showed a rebound in November, but intensified selling by long-term holders has made the maintenance of the key $0.17 support unclear. On-chain indicators show that over the past 24 hours the magnitude of long-term holders' selling conversion surged by 367%, intensifying selling pressure.

According to Glassnode, as of October 31 Dogecoin's long-term holder net position change (Hodler Net Position Change) flipped from a net inflow of +8.2 million DOGE to a net outflow of –22 million DOGE in one day. This suggests a weakening of market sentiment, as the buying pressure from long-term holders maintained in recent months has sharply turned into selling.

According to an on-chain cost-basis heatmap, about 3,780,000,000 DOGE are concentrated in the $0.177~$0.179 range. That range has been a major supply zone that acted as strong support during the previous downturn, and if concentrated selling by long-term holders continues, this support could collapse.

Glassnode analyzed, "If $0.17 breaks, the next major support range is $0.14, and with almost no intermediate supply zones there is additional downside risk." This means that if Dogecoin's long-term support base weakens, the magnitude of short-term corrections could increase.

A bearish signal was also detected in technical analysis. After the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed below the 200-day at the end of October, the 100-day is now below the 200-day, with the so-called 'Death Cross' formation imminent. This is a signal of a shift to long-term bearishness rather than short-term volatility, and it is likely to reinforce further declines.

Dogecoin is currently trading around $0.18, with short-term resistance at $0.20 and $0.21. If it fails to break $0.21 on a daily close, structurally it could fall about 6% to around $0.14.