JH Kim

The three major U.S. stock indices are showing mixed trends. The Nasdaq Composite was trading at 23,518.63 points at 00:06 on the 11th, down 0.25% from the previous day. The Dow Jones index was up 0.23% at 47,671.99 points, and the S&P 500 index was down 0.02% at 6,839.01 points.

The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.13% from the previous day on the 10th to 23,576.88 points. The Dow Jones fell 0.34% to 47,575.46 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.11% to 6,838.66 points to close trading.

On the 9th (local time), according to crypto-focused media Decrypt, U.S. Senator Cory Booker (Democrat) said at the Blockchain Association's annual policy conference that it will be difficult for the virtual asset market-structure bill, the 'CLARITY' bill, to pass unless Democrats are appointed to commissioners at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). He said this is to preserve the agencies' independence so they are not swayed by President Trump. He added in a panel discussion held that afternoon that the bill would ultimately pass. Clarity aims to establish a regulatory framework for the virtual asset industry, dividing the regulatory roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It also stipulates exempting virtual assets that meet certain conditions from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933.

Goldman Sachs said it expects the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut the policy rate by 25bp(0.25%points) this week. On the 9th (local time), foreign media reported that Goldman Sachs' chief financial officer (CFO) Denis Coleman said he expected the Fed to cut rates by 25bp at the monetary policy decision scheduled for Wednesday (local time). CFO Coleman forecast that regarding the 2026 rate path, after a rate pause at the start of the year there would be two additional cuts. This is interpreted to mean that the Fed would maintain a wait-and-see stance in early next year to secure policy space, and thereafter could undertake additional easing depending on economic and inflation conditions.

An assessment has emerged that U.S. consumers are becoming increasingly vulnerable due to declining savings. Marianne Lake (Marianne Lake), a JPMorgan executive, said, "After years of under-saving and overspending, consumers' financial strength is weakening." On the 9th (local time), according to breaking economic news channel Walter Bloomberg (Walter Bloomberg), Lake said, "Consumers are clearly cutting spending and seeking discounted and low-cost alternatives," and added, "The support for consumers and small businesses remains, but the capacity to absorb new financial stress has weakened." Lake pointed out that recent changes in consumer patterns are broad-based. She explained that spending is being reallocated toward essentials, and for discretionary goods price sensitivity has increased, expanding reliance on promotions and sales. From a banking perspective, Lake warned that while consumer credit soundness is generally being maintained, if additional interest rate movements, an employment slowdown, and cost-of-living pressures coincide, risk metrics such as delinquency rates could react sensitively. On the market side, in the short term attention is expected to focus on the earnings guidance and pricing policies of sensitive sectors such as retail, distribution, travel, and restaurants. If discounting expands, low-price lineups are strengthened, and loyalty programs are adjusted, margin pressure and a reshuffling of market share may accompany.

According to the economic news channel Walter Bloomberg on the 9th (local time), Shannon Saccocia (Shannon Saccocia), Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Neuberger Berman (Neuberger Berman), said that with expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), combined with AI-based productivity improvements, there could be upward momentum for risk assets such as stocks. He explained that typically, when the Fed shifts to an easing stance in a non-recessionary phase, the stock market tends to show resilient behavior. However, he left open the possibility of increased market volatility, and added that since uncertainty factors such as the possibility of a U.S. federal government shutdown (work stoppage) remain, investors need to remain cautious.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee could begin markup (markup·discussion and amendment procedure before referral to the plenary) of a virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market-structure bill as early as next week, according to projections. On the 9th (local time), crypto-focused outlet The Block reported that pro-crypto Senator Cynthia Lummis said she expects the market-structure bill markup to take place in the Senate Banking Committee before the Christmas recess. The bill aims to establish a regulatory framework for the virtual asset industry. The core is to delineate regulatory roles between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and it is reported to partially relax registration obligations under the Securities Act of 1933 for virtual assets that meet certain conditions. If the markup materializes, observers say Senate-level discussions on market structure could pick up speed as the year-end approaches. However, the future legislative path could change depending on the actual voting schedule and the extent of adjustments to the bill's wording.

U.S. President Donald Trump is increasing pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by demanding a prompt response regarding a proposal to end the war (ceasefire). On the 9th (local time), according to business breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg, President Zelensky received the 'draft' of the end-of-war proposal from the U.S., and the proposal is reported to contain sensitive issues including territorial matters. The Ukrainian government is reviewing the draft and is also keeping open the possibility of consultations with President Trump. This move is interpreted as a push for a Ukrainian decision amid a U.S. trend to reduce the burdens of a prolonged war. However, if the ceasefire proposal includes core issues such as territorial concessions, it could prompt internal backlash in Ukraine and potential fractures in international cooperation, so the upcoming negotiation phase is expected to face considerable turmoil.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on January 13, 2026. On the 9th (local time), according to economic news channel Walter Bloomberg, the BLS announced the CPI release schedule for January next year as above. The CPI is a key gauge of U.S. inflation trends and could affect the Federal Reserve's (Fed) outlook for monetary policy, drawing market attention.

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) officially confirmed that banks can participate in virtual asset (cryptocurrency) trading using the 'risk-less principal transactions' method. On the 9th (local time), according to Binance News, the OCC said banks are permitted to participate in virtual asset trading in that manner. This means that rather than holding virtual assets directly with their own capital and assuming price fluctuation risk, banks can be involved in trades in a broker role, mediating and matching customer orders.

The three major U.S. stock indexes are showing mixed performance. The Nasdaq Composite was trading at 23,533.53 points, down 0.05% from the previous day as of 00:35 on the 10th. The Dow Jones Index was up 0.17% at 47,819.89 points, and the S&P 500 index was up 0.07% at 6,851.33 points.

The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower. The Nasdaq Composite Index recorded 23,510.77 points, down 0.29% from the previous session on the 9th. The Dow Jones index closed at 47,694.19 points, down 0.54%, and the S&P500 index closed at 6,837.11 points, down 0.48%.

The head of the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) criticized the practice of traditional banks obstructing virtual asset companies from obtaining trust bank (Trust Bank) licenses. On the 8th (local time), according to CoinDesk, a media outlet specializing in virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), Jonathan Gould (Jonathan Gould), the OCC head, said, "There is no reason to treat digital assets differently from existing assets," and "Banks should not be confined to past technologies or businesses." Gould also said, "Over the past year, new license applications have increased to 14, and many of these were related to digital assets and other fintech services." He added that he is investigating de-banking (restrictions on access to banking services) measures targeting virtual asset companies.

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has requested submissions from the virtual asset industry regarding the 'promoting investment culture' policy. On the 8th (local time), according to crypto-focused media Cointelegraph, the FCA said that in this consultation it intends to receive industry policy feedback on key issues including ways to expand consumers' access to investments, customer classification systems, and conflict of interest management. Specifically, the FCA asked for views on examining barriers and information asymmetry in the process by which individual investors access investment products, how customers should be classified (distinctions based on experience and knowledge levels), and how to control potential conflicts of interest on the part of firms. The market interprets this as a stage in which the FCA is seeking regulatory design directions that reflect the characteristics of the virtual asset industry while finding a balance between investor protection and market activation.

Standard Chartered said it expects the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut the policy rate by 25bp(0.25%p) at this week's December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but it also said the vote could be a "close call." According to Reuters on the 8th (local time), Standard Chartered described the Fed's December 25bp cut in its report as an "insurance cut(insurance cut)." However, it pointed out that, since economic data releases have been limited following the government shutdown, there is insufficient data to support a decision to cut and decision-making will not be easy. Standard Chartered assessed that the December rate decision would not be one-sided like "95-to-5," but rather a "close call at about 60-to-40." It said that the limited public indicators due to the shutdown could widen differences of opinion within the Fed. Markets largely expect a 25bp cut in December. Reuters reported that, based on CME FedWatch, traders are pricing roughly an 89.6% chance of a 0.25%p cut at the December meeting. However, Standard Chartered suggested it is likely to be cautious about further cuts after the December 25bp cut. The report maintained the outlook that the Fed could hold rates unchanged through 2026. The FOMC will be held on December 9-10 (local time), and markets are focused on whether the rate decision will be accompanied by signals about the future policy path.

Major U.S. bank chief executives (CEOs) are set to meet with senators to discuss virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) market-structure legislation. Industry observers note that if the bill passes, the regulatory framework for virtual assets in the United States could become clearer. On the 8th (local time), virtual asset-focused media WatcherGuru reported that the 'market-structure bill (CLARITY)' being discussed aims to restructure the regulatory framework across the virtual asset industry. The bill is said to delineate the supervisory roles of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and to, among other things, partially exempt registration requirements under the Securities Act of 1933 for virtual assets that meet certain conditions. Meanwhile, discussions in Washington surrounding the market-structure bill have recently been accelerating. Industry sources say that clarifying jurisdiction among regulators and establishing clear guidelines could affect spot and derivatives markets, stablecoins, and on-chain financial services broadly.

On the 8th (local time), according to the economic breaking account Walter Bloomberg, U.S. Citigroup (Citi) economists said that if the Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts its policy rate this week, it could lead to additional cuts in January and March next year. However, they said that delays in key economic data releases due to the federal government shutdown could constrain the Fed's ability to provide concrete guidance on its future policy path. Citigroup assessed that, amid gaps in recent macro indicators such as employment and inflation, the Fed is likely in the short term to continue a course of adjusting rates that prioritizes managing downside risks to the economy. However, they also noted that in the absence of sufficient accumulated data, the Fed may reinforce a "meeting-by-meeting" message and may not give clear signals on the timing and magnitude of additional cuts. Markets are watching whether the Fed's policy decision this week will provide hints about the year-end and early-year rate path. In particular, given delays to data releases caused by the shutdown, it will be crucial how the Fed explains the timing for obtaining the data needed for policy judgments and the speed of its future decision-making.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has decided not to release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). According to the economic flash account Walter Bloomberg on the 8th (local time), this decision has left one of the key indicators showing October's price trend in a gap. The PPI measures changes in the prices of goods and services at the business stage and, along with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is used to gauge the path of inflation. In particular, in periods when expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy are sensitive, the absence of the PPI could increase uncertainty about the interest rate outlook. Market participants note that if major inflation indicators are missing, the data available for the Fed to use in decision-making is reduced. The more inflation and employment indicators are consecutively missing, the more likely it is that the Fed will slow the pace of policy adjustments or choose more cautious communication at future meetings. However, the non-release of the PPI is not easily interpreted as an immediate change in the inflation trend. Market participants are expected to assess the inflation trajectory by synthesizing other forthcoming price-related indicators and signals from wages, demand, and supply. Meanwhile, as cases of changes or delays in major U.S. macroeconomic indicator schedules continue, there are also views that the volatility of indicator-based trading strategies may increase toward year-end.