[Analysis] "Bitcoin, 2026 will be a period of increased volatility… Long-term bullish outlook remains"

Bitcoin (BTC) is exposed to a lack of directional momentum and downside pressure in the short term, but in the mid-to-long term it could continue a bullish trend based on structural maturation and increased institutional adoption.

On the 21st (local time), Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy Digital Research, said on X, "2026 is a year in which it is particularly difficult to predict Bitcoin due to the macro environment and changes in market structure," and "in the options market, the probabilities of reaching $50,000 and $250,000 by the end of 2026 are assessed at similar levels."

At the time of the analysis, the overall crypto market has already entered a bear market phase, and Bitcoin has also not reconfirmed strong upward momentum. Thorn said, "Downside risks are dominant in the short term until Bitcoin clearly recovers in the $100,000 to $105,000 range," and diagnosed that "additionally, variables affecting the broader financial markets include the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) investment execution, the monetary policy environment, and the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November 2026."

However, structural changes are also being detected. Year to date, long-term Bitcoin volatility has shown a gradual decline. This is interpreted as a phenomenon that has emerged as some institutional investors expand return-generating strategies and volatility-selling strategies for Bitcoin. In particular, the options market has shifted to a structure in which put option volatility is priced higher than call option volatility, which is a marked change compared with 6 months ago.

Such a change in option skew suggests that the Bitcoin market is moving from an early-stage growth asset toward characteristics similar to traditional macro assets. As the market structure enters a maturation phase, analysts say that a gradual trend and volatility management regime are being strengthened rather than a steep one-way rise.

Thorn assessed, "Whether Bitcoin's price is $70,000 or $150,000 in 2026, the long-term bullish view is rather being strengthened." He explained, "With institutional accessibility expanding, combined with an accommodative monetary policy stance and demand for dollar-alternative assets, Bitcoin could become established within the next two years as a hedge against currency value dilution similar to gold."