Bitfinex "Macroeconomic uncertainty, high likelihood of Bitcoin trading sideways in November"

There are views that even November, when Bitcoin has historically shown gains, could be an exception this time. Major analysts cited the Fed's uncertain monetary policy and weakened investor sentiment as reasons, warning of a short-term correction or a trading range.

On the 12th (local time), according to Cointelegraph, Bitfinex analysts said in a report, "The current macroeconomic environment is accommodative, but the Fed's unclear communication is constraining market volatility," and "this is a stabilization phase needed before full-scale expansion, and November is likely to be a sideways period."

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell recently said at a press conference that "uncertainty remains" regarding the additional 0.25%p rate cut scheduled for December. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool, the market currently prices the probability of a December rate cut at about 67.9%, which is significantly lower than the over 90% level maintained for the past two months.

Bitfinex said, "Even Bitcoin bulls will increasingly lose patience if the $116,000 level is not regained," adding, "Selling by long-term holders continues, and if the price does not decisively break through that range, time will work against buying pressure."

Bitcoin was trading at the $103,000 level that morning, down about 3% over 24 hours. The cumulative decline over the past 30 days reached 11.09%.

However, some market experts still leave open the possibility of a November rebound. According to CoinGlass, since 2013 Bitcoin has recorded an average November increase of 41.78%.

Trader Dave Weisberger said, "Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong," adding, "The current situation is very constructive compared to previous up cycles and is rather located at the lower end of the price band."

Another analyst, Carl Runefelt, said on X (formerly Twitter), "Bitcoin will soon turn green (rise) again," adding, "a big bullish candle is coming soon." Trader AshCrypto also said, "I still maintain a bullish outlook."