CME FedWatch "Fed, 54% chance of holding rates in December… 45.8% chance of a 25bp cut"
Suehyeon Lee
Summary
- According to CME Group's FedWatch, a December policy rate hold was calculated at 54.2%.
- They said the probability of a 25bp cut was 45.8%, lower than the probability of a hold.
- They reported that recent uncertainty in employment and inflation indicators and cautious remarks by Fed officials have reduced market expectations for a rate cut.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) appears somewhat more likely to hold its policy rate next month.
On the 17th (local time), according to CME Group's FedWatch, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had a
probability of holding rates of 54.2%, and a probability of a 25bp (0.25 percentage point) cut of 45.8%.
With recent uncertainty in employment and inflation indicators and cautious remarks from Fed officials, markets seem to view the chance of a December rate cut as lower than before and the chance of a hold as higher.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.
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