Suehyeon Lee

U.S. spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a large influx of capital. According to Trader T on the 27th (local time), total net inflows into U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs the previous day came to about $117.08 million (about 169.5 billion won). By issuer, Fidelity’s FETH led the flow with $137.24 million in inflows. In contrast, BlackRock’s ETHA posted $20.16 million in net outflows. The remaining products recorded no net inflows or outflows.

US spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) swung back to net inflows in a day. According to TraderT on the 27th (local time), total net inflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs the previous day came to about $6.82 million (about 9.8 billion won). By issuer, BlackRock’s IBIT led the overall flow with $15.89 million in inflows. In addition, WisdomTree’s BTCW saw $2.79 million in inflows, while Grayscale’s GBTC and the Grayscale Mini Bitcoin product recorded combined net inflows of $7.75 million. By contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC posted $5.73 million in net outflows, and Bitwise’s BITB also saw $10.97 million leave. ARK Invest’s ARKB likewise recorded net outflows of $2.91 million. The remaining products had no net flows.

As global liquidity conditions improve, analysis suggests Ethereum (ETH) could enter a medium- to long-term uptrend similar to 2021. According to Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time), cryptocurrency analyst Sykodelic presented a recurring cyclical pattern among global liquidity, the Russell 2000 index, and Ethereum’s price, saying: “Looking at past moves, global liquidity breaks out first, then the Russell 2000 turns higher, and after a certain lag Ethereum begins a full-fledged advance.” Sykodelic said that on a monthly chart, global liquidity has already completed an upside breakout, and the Russell 2000 has followed by setting a fresh record high. Ethereum has typically lagged this phase by several weeks to several months. In the 2021 cycle, Ethereum entered a full rally about 119 days after the Russell 2000 confirmed its trend. If that pattern is applied mechanically, Ethereum’s medium- to long-term breakout could occur around March 2026. Under similar conditions from March to November 2021, Ethereum rose about 226%. Sykodelic stressed that liquidity conditions—rather than short-term technical indicators—are a key variable determining the long-term trend of high-beta assets. The Russell 2000’s role as a leading indicator is also back in focus. Max, CEO of BecauseBitcoin, said the Russell 2000 has historically led Ethereum’s price-discovery phase, adding that the Russell 2000’s recent move to a record high (2,738) is “a signal that increases the likelihood of further upside expansion in Ethereum.” On-chain indicators also point to downside resilience. According to CryptoQuant data, the realized price of Ethereum’s long-term-holder “accumulation addresses” has climbed to around $2,720. This metric has acted as a medium- to long-term support level that has never been breached even during past downturns. With the gap versus the spot price not large, the data are being interpreted as showing continued accumulation even amid heightened volatility.

Amid heightened geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty, demand for safe-haven assets is strengthening, rapidly expanding the tokenized gold market. According to Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time), Tether said the market capitalization of its gold-linked stablecoin Tether Gold (XAUt) has surpassed $2.2 billion, accounting for more than half of the entire gold-backed stablecoin market. As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, there were 520,089 XAUt in circulation, with each token backed 1:1 by one troy ounce of physical gold. Paolo Ardoino, Tether’s CEO, said the amount of physical gold backing XAUt has grown to a level comparable to the gold reserves of some countries. The announcement coincided with COMEX gold prices surpassing $5,000 per ounce for the first time ever. Behind the gold rally is a push by central banks to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks purchased a net 220 tons of gold in the third quarter of last year alone. Over the same period, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to trend lower, underscoring a clear weakening in the dollar. Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTC) is often cited as a hedge against currency debasement, but is seen as failing to attract inflows as steady as gold. Some analysts say gold continues to serve as the preeminent safe-haven asset, particularly among conservative investors.

An analysis suggests that the recovery in the crypto-asset (cryptocurrency) market could be delayed as the total market capitalization of stablecoins has fallen by about $2.24 billion over the past 10 days. On the 26th (local time), Santiment said on X that "a decline in stablecoin market cap means investors are converting to fiat rather than keeping funds on the sidelines to buy during a correction." The analysis is that as uncertainty grows, investors increasingly opt for safe-haven assets instead of highly volatile crypto assets. Recent price action underscores this shift: while gold and silver have notched fresh record highs, the broader crypto market—including Bitcoin (BTC)—has undergone a correction. Bitcoin has remained in a downtrend since a large-scale leveraged liquidation on Oct. 10 last year and is currently trading in the $88,000 range. Over the same period, gold prices have risen more than 20%, breaking above $5,000 per ounce, while silver has surged by more than twofold in terms of market capitalization. This preference for safe-haven assets is also evident in the moves of stablecoin issuers. Tether (USDT) emerged as a major buyer, purchasing about 27 tonnes of gold in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone—worth $4.4 billion. Santiment pointed to a rebound in stablecoin supply as a key leading indicator for the next leg up in crypto markets. "Historically, strong market rebounds began when stablecoin market cap stopped falling and turned back to growth," it said, adding that "this signals fresh inflows and a recovery in investor sentiment." Until then, however, the altcoin market could face greater headwinds. Santiment added that "in this environment, Bitcoin shows relatively stronger defensiveness, but with stablecoin supply shrinking, upside potential across the broader market is inevitably constrained."

An analysis finds that Ethereum (ETH)’s recent price pullback was triggered less by the spot market than by a deleveraging process in the derivatives market. On the 26th (local time), CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha, citing Binance derivatives data, said that “over the past two weeks, Ethereum derivatives open interest (OI) plunged from about $8 billion to around $6.4 billion,” adding that “this is a signal that the market has entered a deleveraging phase rather than an expansion of directional selling.” Notably, while OI fell rapidly, cumulative volume delta (CVD) based on market-order flow continued to trend higher. This suggests that, rather than a surge of new short positions, existing accumulated shorts were liquidated, leaving positioning lighter, the contributor explained. He pointed out that “a pattern in which CVD rises during a price decline indicates the market is undergoing position unwinding rather than aggressive selling.” The same pattern is also seen in liquidation data. On Binance, large-scale short liquidations occurred when Ethereum was attempting to break above the $3,300 level, after which the trend weakened as short-term upside pressure was exhausted. This is interpreted as a typical derivatives-led setup in which prices pull back again after a rebound because fresh demand fails to come in sufficiently. In the subsequent decline, leveraged long positions initiated near the highs were liquidated in a chain. As longs forcibly closed on the way down hit the tape as market sells, downside volatility increased, creating conditions in which prices could slide quickly even without spot selling. Amr Taha added, “The current Ethereum price pullback is closer to a process of unwinding excessively built-up leveraged positions than a signal of deteriorating fundamentals,” and said, “Given the decline in OI and the liquidation structure, volatility may persist in the short term, but additional spot supply-demand signals are needed to assess the medium-term trend.”

Bitcoin (BTC) sent a near-term warning signal after closing the week below key technical levels on the weekly chart. According to analyst Rekt Capital on the 26th (local time), Bitcoin fell below both the mid-range level of $95,000 and the rising higher-high/higher-low trendline that had held for weeks on this week’s weekly candle. This is interpreted as a sign that bullish momentum has weakened in the near term. Still, the price remains within the weekly range ($86,000–$93,500). While the overall structure has not completely broken down, the lower support at $86,000 has emerged as a key inflection point for the next leg. Rekt Capital said, “We should pay close attention to the strength of any rebound that may occur around the $86,000 level,” adding, “If this rebound is weaker than the Q4 2025 rebound, it could be interpreted as a sign that support in this area is gradually weakening.” In sum, Bitcoin is still holding its weekly range, but if the 86k support breaks, it would enter a phase where stronger downside pressure could emerge. In the near term, whether that support holds is expected to be the key variable determining price direction.

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to reclaim the $88,000 level. As of 8:27 a.m. on the 27th (KST), Bitcoin was trading at $88,284.46, up 2.12% from the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap. On Upbit’s KRW market, it was trading at 129,464,000 won, up 0.75% from the previous day. Major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), were also gaining. Ethereum was up 4.46% day-on-day to $2,928.20 on CoinMarketCap, while XRP was up 3.92% to $1.9. Solana (SOL) was also up 4.34% from the previous day, trading at $124.2.

As BitMine rapidly increases its share of Ethereum staking, an analysis suggests it could generate roughly $160 million a year in staking income at current levels. According to Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time), BitMine said it purchased an additional 40,302 ETH last week, lifting its total holdings to about 4,243,338 ETH. Over the same period, staked ETH rose by 171,264 ETH to a total of 2,009,267 ETH. Applying the company’s stated Composite Ethereum Staking Rate (CESR) of 2.81% implies annualized revenue of about $164 million from the currently staked amount alone. Tom Lee, BitMine’s chairman, said that if all of the company’s Ethereum holdings were staked, it could generate about $374 million a year—more than $1 million a day. BitMine is working with multiple staking operators and plans to internalize staking by building its own validator infrastructure in the U.S. in 2026. Its financial position is also robust. BitMine reported total crypto and cash assets of $12.8 billion, including $682 million in cash, 193 BTC and certain equity investments, in addition to its Ethereum holdings. BitMine’s current ETH holdings amount to about 3.52% of circulating supply, and its long-term goal is to secure 5% of total ETH. Staking is increasingly becoming a core revenue source for companies pursuing Ethereum treasury strategies. SharpLink Gaming also disclosed that its fully staked strategy generated rewards of 10,657 ETH (about $33 million) over the past seven months. Bit Digital has pivoted toward reducing its bitcoin mining assets and increasing Ethereum holdings, while Ether Machine is also preparing yield-oriented Ethereum investment products for institutions. Rising staking demand is also evident in on-chain indicators. Ethereum’s staking “exit queue” has recently fallen to zero, while the entry queue has topped 2.6 million ETH, the highest level since mid-2023. Industry observers say generating stable returns through staking is becoming the standard for ETH treasury strategies.

With the UK financial regulator formally allowing exchange-traded products (ETPs) linked to virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) for retail investors, related products are beginning to appear in earnest on the London market. According to Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time), Valour, the UK subsidiary of digital asset firm DeFi Technologies, said it has received approval from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to launch crypto ETPs for retail investors. This enables Valour to list ETPs linked to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and offer them to UK retail investors. Johan Wattenström, Chairman and CEO of DeFi Technologies, said, “The UK is one of the most important financial markets in the world,” adding that “this approval has broadened the pathway for UK retail investors to access the digital asset economy more easily through transparent, exchange-listed products.” Valour previously announced plans in September last year to list a Bitcoin staking ETP on the London Stock Exchange, but at the time it was aimed only at professional investors. However, after the FCA lifted its ban on crypto ETPs for retail investors in October last year, the scope has now been expanded to include retail investors. Major asset managers such as Bitwise are also reportedly preparing to enter the UK market. Meanwhile, Valour has already launched a Solana (SOL)-based ETP in Brazil and is now accelerating the expansion of its global crypto ETP business through its entry into the UK. According to the London Stock Exchange, more than 50 issuers have listed over 2,300 ETPs, and trading value in crypto ETPs totaled about $280 million in December last year.

Bitcoin (BTC) posted a modest rebound after reaffirming support at $86,000, but caution about further upside is persisting in the derivatives market. According to Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time), Bitcoin retested the area around $86,000 and then rebounded about 1.5%, trading in the $87,800 range. Still, with the possibility of a U.S. federal government shutdown being discussed through this weekend, risk-off sentiment across markets remains evident ahead of key events such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and earnings releases from global Big Tech. Derivatives indicators point to investors’ cautious stance. The annualized Bitcoin futures premium (basis) remained around 5%. That suggests limited demand for leveraged long positions and falls well short of the 10%+ levels typically seen in bullish phases. Over the past two weeks, market sentiment has been assessed as staying in neutral-to-bearish territory. The options market is also dominated by defensive positioning. Bitcoin options delta skew rose to 12%, indicating puts (downside bets) are trading with a premium. In a neutral market, the indicator typically moves within a -6% to +6% range, and the current level is similar to when Bitcoin plunged sharply in a short period in early December last year. Meanwhile, gold prices broke above $5,100 per ounce, setting a fresh record high. Analysts say a so-called “debasement trade” is strengthening as a weaker dollar coincides with distrust in fiscal and monetary policy. However, because this trend is not immediately driving flows into Bitcoin, Bitcoin still appears not to have fully shed its risk-asset character. News that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reviewed market conditions related to the Japanese yen also weighed on investor sentiment. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) fell below 97 for the first time in four months, but caution is being driven simultaneously by concerns over resurgent inflation and monetary-policy uncertainty. Some in the market also expect that if this week’s Big Tech earnings come in better than anticipated, risk appetite could remain concentrated in equities, limiting rotation of funds into Bitcoin. For Bitcoin to reclaim the $93,000 level, a recovery in confidence among professional investors across derivatives markets likely needs to come first.

A survey has found that a majority of institutional investors view the current price of Bitcoin (BTC) as being in undervalued territory. A Coinbase report cited by Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time) released the results of a survey conducted from early December last year to early January this year of 75 institutional investors and 73 independent investors. According to the survey, 71% of institutional investors and 60% of independent investors said Bitcoin is undervalued. During the survey period, Bitcoin mostly traded in the $85,000–$95,000 range. About 25% of institutional investors assessed that price band as “fair value,” while only 4% said Bitcoin was overvalued. Bitcoin is currently around $87,600, more than 30% below the all-time high of $126,080 set in October last year. Coinbase pointed out that Bitcoin has recently underperformed relative to precious metals such as gold and silver as well as the stock market. Gold prices surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time on record, and silver prices have also nearly doubled in market capitalization terms since October last year. By contrast, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index rose only about 3% over the same period. Institutional investors’ medium- to long-term outlook appeared relatively firm. Some 80% of respondents said they would maintain their holdings or even buy more if the crypto market falls an additional 10%. More than 60% were found to have maintained or increased their Bitcoin allocation since October last year. As many as 54% of respondents described the current market phase as an “accumulation phase” or a “bear market.” Coinbase also noted that the macro backdrop could turn more supportive for crypto markets going forward. It cited forecasts that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could deliver two rate cuts in 2026, and said solid US economic indicators—including easing inflation (December CPI up 2.7%) and real GDP growth of more than 5% in the fourth quarter—could underpin a recovery in risk appetite.

A major Ethereum (ETH) holding address that had been inactive for an extended period is moving again, drawing market attention. According to Wu Blockchain on the 26th (local time), an Ethereum whale address that had been dormant for about nine years transferred 50,000 ETH to the Gemini exchange over the past 12 hours. The transfer is worth about $145 million. The address previously withdrew a total of 135,000 ETH from Bitfinex nine years ago, when Ethereum was trading around $90. At current prices, that implies roughly a 32-fold increase. Even after this transfer, the address still holds about 85,000 ETH, worth about $244 million. The market is closely watching whether the large move to an exchange could signal potential profit-taking and affect short-term supply and demand.

Capital continues to flow out of US spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), following a similar trend in Bitcoin (BTC). According to Trader T on the 26th (local time), spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of about $606 million last week (roughly 872.6 billion won). Total trading volume over the same period came to about $7 billion. Outflows were concentrated in specific asset managers. BlackRock posted the largest net outflow at about $437 million, followed by Grayscale with about $78 million and Bitwise with about $46 million. The market sees this as reflecting short-term institutional risk-management via spot ETFs amid Ethereum’s price weakness. With trading volume holding up, the view is that this is more about position trimming during a corrective phase than a structural drop in demand.

Large-scale fund outflows from U.S. Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are continuing. According to Trader T on the 26th (local time), spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.323bn last week (about KRW 1.9043tn). Trading volume over the same period was tallied at $17.0bn. Outflows were concentrated in ETFs run by major asset managers. BlackRock posted net outflows of about $536m, while Fidelity recorded about $452m. Grayscale also saw about $172m leave. Market participants say institutional money pulled back in the short term as Bitcoin’s recent price correction coincided with derivatives deleveraging and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. However, with trading volume still holding at elevated levels, the move is being read less as a full-blown demand collapse and more as a risk-off driven round of position adjustments.

An analysis suggests that a heavy slate of large token unlocks over the coming week could heighten short-term supply-demand pressure, particularly for certain altcoins. According to data from Tokenomist cited by WuBlockchain on the 25th (local time), tokens subject to “cliff unlocks” — where a single unlock exceeds $5 million over the next seven days — include Hyperliquid (HYPE), Sui (SUI), Eigen (EIGEN), Kamino (KMNO), Optimism (OP), Ethena (ENA), Zora (ZORA) and Slash Vision Labs (SVL). Because these tokens enter the market in a lump sum at a specific point in time, they are viewed as a factor that could amplify near-term price volatility. Over the same period, “linear unlocks” — in which more than $1 million per day is released sequentially — include Rain (RAIN), Solana (SOL), Official Trump (TRUMP), Worldcoin (WLD), Dogecoin (DOGE), Avalanche (AVAX) and Aster (ASTER). Linear unlocks may have a more limited immediate price impact, but if they accumulate, they could translate into persistent selling pressure. The total amount of token unlocks scheduled over the next seven days was tallied at more than $585 million. With market-wide liquidity recently thin, this increase in supply is seen as likely to directly affect the supply-demand dynamics and near-term price action of individual altcoins.

As gold extends its bullish run even after breaking above $5,000 per ounce, some are arguing that the rally is closer to a “regime shift” than a short-lived event. By contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving sideways around $87,000, failing to find a clear direction. On the 25th (local time), CoinDesk, citing CryptoQuant data, reported that Bitcoin holders have started selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023. While prior high-price buyers are reducing positions, new participants are absorbing the supply—a pattern typically interpreted as characteristic of a consolidation or sideways phase rather than a strong uptrend. Glassnode also assessed that Bitcoin’s price is being capped by internal supply pressure. It said that at each recent rebound attempt, sell orders have emerged near prior purchase levels, limiting upside. In particular, Bitcoin has yet to reclaim the area around $98,000, where the average cost basis of short-term holders sits, and a thick overhang of supply above $100,000 is seen as reducing the likelihood of a near-term breakout. In practice, as break-even selling and stop-loss selling by investors who bought near the 2025 highs repeatedly hit the market, the structure has continued to reinforce overhead resistance. This suggests an environment in which it is difficult to sustain a move even if upside momentum forms. Derivatives indicators are sending the same signal. Futures trading volumes remain subdued, and leverage usage is also limited. Recent price swings have occurred in thin-liquidity conditions, leading to the view that they are far from the kind of trend-driven move that comes with broader participation. Views are also split in prediction markets. On Polymarket, higher odds are being assigned to the possibility that gold holds above $5,500 during the year, while the prevailing view for Bitcoin is that it will go through additional sideways trading and a digestion phase rather than a near-term rebound. Market participants are describing the current phase as one in which “gold functions as an asset that absorbs macro stress, while Bitcoin is confronting internal supply clean-up ahead of external catalysts.” For Bitcoin to shift back into a sustained uptrend, normalization of the supply overhang and a rebalancing of supply and demand may need to come first, more than macro variables.

The Kaia DLT Foundation said on the 26th that Galactica, a Kaia-based real-world asset tokenization (RWA) project, has successfully closed its first ship-finance tokenization deal, “Pegasus.” Galactica is a joint venture established by Kaia and Indonesian shipping company PT Pelayaran Korindo. The Pegasus deal is a tokenized finance project involving an LNG vessel valued at US$25 million. The key feature is that it converts ship finance—traditionally run primarily for institutional investors—into a blockchain-based RWA structure, linking it to global digital liquidity. The transaction was carried out in collaboration with InvestaX, a tokenization SaaS platform licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). The deal, which uses a 145,000 CBM LNG vessel as the underlying asset, was designed to allow qualified investors to participate in shipping finance assets through a tokenized structure and was quickly closed amid strong demand. It is seen as demonstrating that even high-value industrial assets can be financed in practice via a blockchain-based RWA model. The case is particularly significant in Indonesia’s maritime industry, where ship ownership is relatively high but access to finance is limited, in that it presents a new fundraising route through tokenization. It is drawing attention as a model that offers shipowners a more efficient financing tool while providing investors with structured investment opportunities in maritime assets. Kim Yoong-young, CEO of Galactica, said, “The Pegasus deal confirms there is tangible market demand for high-quality, high-value RWAs,” adding, “By successfully closing our first deal, we have established a replicable model for maritime asset tokenization, including ship finance.” Suh Sang-min, chairman of the Kaia DLT Foundation, said, “The successful closing of Pegasus is an important milestone for the Kaia ecosystem,” adding, “Kaia’s on-chain financial infrastructure, Web3 partner network and blockchain expertise supported this transaction. This is only the beginning of Galactica’s RWA strategy, and we will continue to present reliable, high-quality tokenized RWA investment opportunities to investors at home and abroad.”

World Liberty Financial (WLFI) is reducing its exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) and reallocating assets into Ethereum (ETH). According to Lookonchain on the 25th (local time), World Liberty Financial sold 93.77 Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) about six hours ago and bought about 2,868 ETH. The transaction size is estimated at about $8.08 million. The move is interpreted as a clear rotation of assets from Bitcoin to Ethereum. While Bitcoin has seen heightened volatility amid political and macro uncertainty, Ethereum may have benefited from perceptions of relative defensiveness supported by staking demand and on-chain activity.

The crypto market sharply contracted as the possibility of a partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government came back into focus. According to Cointelegraph on the 26th (local time), total crypto market capitalization late the previous day fell from about $2.97 trillion to $2.87 trillion in roughly six and a half hours, wiping out around $100 billion. The decline was directly fueled by political uncertainty after Senate Democrats said they would block passage of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer formalized the shutdown risk, saying, “I cannot support a DHS funding bill that lacks safeguards to control Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).” In the wake of the remarks, Kalshi and Polymarket showed the odds of the U.S. government entering a shutdown by the 31st of this month surging to as high as 80%. Risk-off sentiment spread quickly across markets. Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.4% over the past 24 hours, slipping below the $87,000 level, while Ethereum (ETH) posted a steeper drop of more than 4% in a single day. Altcoins broadly also weakened in tandem, with volatility rising. Deleveraging also continued in derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, about $360 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated, most of them long positions. Market participants said the pullback was driven more by leverage reduction tied to a political event than by large-scale spot selling. Meanwhile, investors have been reinforcing their preference for safe-haven assets as tariff frictions among the U.S., China and Canada, along with military tensions in the Middle East, add to the risk backdrop. Over the same period, gold and silver prices continued to rally, breaking above $5,000 and $106, respectively, and marking fresh record highs. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of crypto market sentiment, has fallen to around 20 and remains in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Markets are pointing to progress in shutdown negotiations as a key factor that will determine near-term volatility.

Rising political uncertainty in the United States appears to have fueled short-term risk-off positioning, amplifying volatility in the digital-asset market. On the 26th (local time), CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan said, "In prediction markets, the probability of a повтор U.S. government shutdown has risen to 78%, and the budget deadline is approaching on January 30, 2026. With bipartisan negotiations stalled, political risk is once again weighing on near-term market sentiment," the report said. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $87,000 level. During the decline, about $170 million in leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated over roughly 60 minutes, and cumulative liquidations over a four-hour window reached around $320 million. Over a short period, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell by about $40 billion. Because the move occurred in a thin-liquidity zone, it was viewed less as broad-based spot selling and more as a derivatives-led deleveraging phase. Liquidations occur when an exchange forcibly closes positions after futures holdings fall below maintenance margin requirements. Leveraged long positions have primarily been used by short-term traders and hedging/arbitrage participants, and had accumulated on expectations of a 2026 upswing. When prices fall, forced closures hit the market as market orders, and if the order book is thin, declines can accelerate over a short period. A key indicator for interpreting this zone is open interest (OI). OI reflects the size of outstanding futures positions in the market and is used as a gauge of leverage. When OI declines alongside falling prices, it suggests price moves are being driven more by liquidations and position unwinds than by deteriorating fundamentals. Based on on-chain data, total OI currently stands at about $28.4 billion, significantly lower than the roughly $47.0 billion peak seen in late 2025. This indicates a substantial degree of deleveraging has already taken place. However, with OI stabilizing and edging up slightly in early 2026, there remains room for additional volatility during the correction. XWIN Research Japan said, "Ultimately, what matters in this downturn is not whether a specific price level breaks, but how the market responds afterward," adding, "Key points to watch next are whether selling pressure cools quickly after liquidations, whether spot demand absorbs supply, and whether leverage indicators normalize."

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged this week, but depending on the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the future policy path, volatility could increase across both traditional financial markets and crypto assets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool cited by CoinDesk on the 26th (local time), the probability that the Fed will keep the benchmark rate in the 3.5–3.75% range stands at 96%. Powell previously said in a speech last December that additional rate cuts could be pushed back until after 2026, while Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and a voting member of this year’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), also remarked that “it is still too early to talk about rate cuts.” The key question, however, is whether this hold is a “hawkish pause” or a “dovish pause.” A hawkish message would underscore inflation risks and could weigh on risk assets. Conversely, if the hold is framed as temporary and hints at the possibility of resuming cuts within the next few months, it could be supportive for Bitcoin (BTC) and equities. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to keep the existing wording in its policy statement about “considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments,” leaving the door open to easing. CoinDesk also noted that Powell is likely to face questions at the press conference about President Donald Trump’s policy to “ease housing cost burdens.” Trump recently mentioned large-scale purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and measures to restrict institutional investors from buying single-family homes. ING said “financial conditions are already sufficiently loose, making it difficult to justify the need for additional rate cuts,” adding that “if Powell’s comments lead to a stronger dollar, it could be a short-term headwind for Bitcoin.” Some assessments also suggest that certain policies could stoke inflation pressure in the near term. Allianz Investment Management pointed out that a $200 billion MBS purchase could pull forward housing demand and push prices higher. Meanwhile, while the Trump administration’s tariff policy has largely been priced in by markets, there remains the possibility that higher import prices could feed through to consumer inflation this year. Ultimately, the core of this FOMC is not the rate level but Powell’s words. With the dollar, equities and Bitcoin all poised to react sensitively depending on how he frames policy direction for the coming months, tensions with the White House, and his assessment of volatility in global bond markets, markets are effectively treating this press conference as a directional event.

Stablecoin issuers were found to have led the revenue structure across the broader crypto industry in 2025. According to CoinGecko Research on the 25th (local time), among 168 crypto protocols in 2025, Tether posted about $5.2 billion in revenue, accounting for 41.9% of total protocol revenue—the highest figure for any single project. In particular, the top four stablecoin issuers generated roughly $8.3 billion in revenue, equal to 65.7% of total protocol revenue. This suggests that the stablecoin issuance and distribution model has emerged as the most stable source of earnings, surpassing decentralized finance (DeFi) or infrastructure-focused protocols. Second place went to Tron, which recorded about $3.5 billion in revenue. Tron is used as a core network for global Tether (USDT) transfers, and its high transaction throughput was cited as a key factor driving revenue growth. CoinGecko Research assessed that stablecoins and transaction-focused protocols are driving cash flow in the crypto industry, and that revenue concentration remains pronounced compared with the application and infrastructure segments.