Suehyeon Lee

Uncertainty over U.S. digital-asset regulation comes into focus ‘Clarity Act’ faces hurdles…a negative for the market Divisions over ‘stablecoin yield’ “Bitcoin could rebound if the bill passes” As Bitcoin (BTC) remains unable to shake its downtrend, uncertainty over U.S. regulation of digital assets (cryptocurrencies) is coming into focus and weighing on the market. The “Digital Asset Market Structure Bill (Clarity Act),” long viewed as a medium- to long-term positive catalyst, is struggling to clear the legislative process. After the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry passed the “Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act,” based on the Clarity Act, on the 29th of last month (local time), banking-sector and digital-asset industry participants failed to narrow their differences over the “stablecoin yield” issue at a meeting convened by the White House on the 2nd. “Stablecoin yield” is seen as one of the Clarity Act’s key sticking points. Banks argue that if digital-asset platforms are allowed to pay yields without clear limits, bank deposits could flow out and undermine the stability of the financial system. The industry, by contrast, counters that an outright ban on yields could weaken the competitiveness of the U.S. stablecoin sector and dilute the legislation’s aim of protecting users. Both sides must present a compromise proposal to the White House by the end of this month. According to blockchain outlet The Block Crypto on the 2nd, investment bank TD Cowen said it would be difficult for the Clarity Act to pass unless U.S. President Donald Trump forces a compromise between banks and the industry. The need to secure Democratic support is also cited as a major hurdle. Wall Street investment bank Bernstein said the Clarity Act must pass in the second quarter of this year, before the U.S. enters the midterm election phase, adding that a prolonged dispute over stablecoin yields would sap momentum for the legislation. After August, when the country shifts into full election mode, there will be little bandwidth to process complex bills. There are also optimistic forecasts that the Clarity Act will pass within the year. Digital-asset manager CoinShares said in a recent report that while crypto-related bills have repeatedly faced obstacles in the past, the stablecoin-related “GENIUS Act” ultimately passed last summer, adding that if the industry and the government reach an agreement, the Clarity Act could clear key hurdles and pass within the year. The report said the Clarity Act would significantly reduce long-term uncertainty for both the industry and regulators, and bolster investor confidence in the U.S. oversight framework, adding that it could open a clear path for compliant initial public offerings (IPOs). Analysts also say passage of the Clarity Act could trigger a strong rebound in the Bitcoin market. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer (CIO) at Bitwise, said that if the Clarity Act passes, growth pathways related to stablecoins and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization would become clearer, increasing the likelihood of a sizable rally across the broader digital-asset market.

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a consolidation phase after a sharp drop, but renewed dollar strength is raising doubts about the scope for a meaningful rebound. According to CoinDesk on the 3rd (local time), bitcoin has stabilized over the past 24 hours in the $75,000–$80,000 range, halting its decline. Some in the market are citing futures position unwinds and a technical bounce as grounds for the possibility of reclaiming the upper end of $80,000. Still, as the dollar regains strength, concerns are growing over the durability of a medium-term rebound. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar’s value against major currencies, has risen 1.5% over the past two days to 97.6—its largest two-day gain in nine months. In general, a stronger dollar tends to weigh on dollar-denominated assets such as bitcoin. When the dollar rises, the relative appeal of holding risk and alternative assets—such as bitcoin, gold, and commodities—declines, and global financial conditions tend to tighten. Market participants are pointing to developments around Federal Reserve (Fed) leadership as a key driver of the dollar’s recent bounce. After U.S. President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the next Fed chair, expectations for earlier rate cuts have partially receded. Warsh has previously been viewed as hawkish during his tenure as a Fed governor. In a recent report, ING said the “debasement trade” that had driven the dollar lower last week is being unwound following Warsh’s nomination, adding that “the dollar appears to be entering a near-term recovery phase.” It also cited as a variable the postponement of scheduled U.S. employment data releases due to a government shutdown, which could increase dollar volatility going forward. Matthew Ryan, head of strategy at FXStreet, also noted that while Warsh has recently made remarks agreeing on the need for rate cuts, “given his past leanings, he is relatively unlikely to advocate aggressive easing,” adding that “there is room for the dollar rebound to extend further.” Many in the market believe bitcoin will struggle to break out of its range until the dollar’s trajectory clearly turns. While a short-term technical rebound remains possible, analysts say it is uncertain whether it can develop into a sustained uptrend amid a stronger dollar and macro headwinds.

As the merger between SpaceX, the space company led by Elon Musk, and xAI, an artificial intelligence (AI) company, draws attention for the potential creation of a mega tech firm, SpaceX’s large Bitcoin (BTC) holdings are once again emerging as a focal point for the market. According to CoinDesk on the 3rd (local time), the merged entity will inherit SpaceX’s existing Bitcoin assets as they are. Based on estimates from past disclosures, SpaceX is believed to hold about 8,300 BTC, worth roughly $650 million at current prices. While the stake is not large given that a potential IPO valuation could exceed $1 trillion, it is seen as a level that is difficult to ignore in terms of accounting treatment, disclosures, and investor perception. SpaceX first disclosed its Bitcoin purchases in 2021 and, unlike electric-vehicle maker Tesla, has remained a private company. As a result, it has been relatively insulated from the accounting volatility faced by public companies, which must reflect fair-value remeasurements each quarter. However, that changes if it begins preparations for an IPO. Virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) become items that must be clearly disclosed in financial statements and offering documents, and valuation gains or losses driven by price volatility can also become a factor in market assessments. Tesla’s case illustrates this burden vividly. In the past, Tesla recognized hundreds of millions of dollars in impairment losses during periods of falling prices even without selling its Bitcoin. For this reason, SpaceX’s Bitcoin holdings could likewise be interpreted conservatively during the IPO process. That said, SpaceX differs from Tesla in that it has little history of actively trading Bitcoin. A long-term holding stance may be viewed as a stabilizing signal for some long-term investors, but it remains a burden that flexibility could be limited if market conditions deteriorate around the time of an IPO. The merger also raises questions about how digital assets are managed across Musk’s broader corporate empire. Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI have each operated under different disclosure regimes, accounting standards, and capital structures depending on whether they are public or private. As the SpaceX–xAI merger concentrates Bitcoin exposure within a single corporate structure, attention is turning to how Musk’s digital-asset holding strategy will be interpreted by IPO investors going forward.

Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, recently described Ethereum’s (ETH) steep selloff as “a pullback driven by supply-demand and positioning factors rather than a deterioration in fundamentals,” adding that the current level looks attractive from a medium- to long-term perspective. According to Cointelegraph on the 3rd (local time), Lee said “Q1 2026 could be an important inflection point for Ethereum,” adding that “despite the price decline, on-chain indicators and network activity are actually strengthening.” In fact, Ethereum’s daily transaction count hit an all-time high of 2.8 million as of Jan. 15, and in 2026 the number of daily active addresses also rose to as many as 1 million. He explained that “during the 2018 and 2022 crypto-winter phases, transaction activity and the number of active wallets fell in tandem with prices, but the past 12 months have shown the opposite trend,” adding that “Ethereum’s price weakness stems from external factors, not fundamentals.” Lee cited two factors weighing on Ethereum’s price: derivatives-market leverage has yet to return following large-scale liquidations in October last year, and a surge in precious-metal prices such as gold and silver has acted as a “capital vortex,” absorbing risk appetite. Based on this view, BitMine, an Ethereum treasury company led by Lee, has recently stepped in to buy during the correction. BitMine added 41,788 ETH over the past week, bringing its total holdings to about 4.28 million ETH, or 3.55% of total supply. Of that, about 2.87 million ETH is being used for staking. However, as Ethereum’s price plunged more than 25% over the past week from around $3,000 to $2,200, BitMine’s unrealized losses are estimated to be nearing $7 billion. Even so, Lee interpreted the pullback as an opportunity, saying “Ethereum’s price still does not adequately reflect its utility and its value as future financial infrastructure.”

US spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued to post net outflows. According to Trader T on the 2nd (local time), total net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs came to about $15.58 million (about 2.25 billion won) that day. This marked a third consecutive trading session of net outflows. By issuer, BlackRock’s ETHA led the overall outflows with $82.84 million withdrawn. By contrast, Fidelity’s FETH saw $66.62 million in inflows, absorbing some of the funds. Bitwise’s ETHW also recorded a net inflow of $4.99 million, while VanEck’s ETHV posted a net inflow of $7.64 million. The remaining products saw no net flows.

A large amount of capital flowed into US spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to Trader T on the 2nd (local time), total net inflows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs came to about $562.62 million (about KRW 814.6 billion) on the day. This marked a return to net inflows after five trading sessions. By issuer, BlackRock’s IBIT saw inflows of $142.72 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC took in $153.35 million, leading the inflows. Bitwise’s BITB recorded net inflows of $96.50 million, and ARK Invest’s ARKB posted $65.07 million. In addition, Grayscale’s Mini BTC attracted $67.24 million, while VanEck’s HODL saw $24.34 million, Invesco’s BTCO $10.09 million, and WisdomTree’s BTCW $3.31 million. The remaining products saw no net flows.

Stablecoin issuer Tether said it has released open-source software for Bitcoin mining, aiming to boost the openness and scalability of mining infrastructure. On the 2nd (local time), Tether announced on its official X account that it had launched a Bitcoin mining operating system called 'MiningOS (MiningOS·MOS)'. Tether described MOS as a "modular, scalable mining operating system that anyone can use, from individual miners to large institutions." Tether said, "The Bitcoin mining industry has long been constrained by closed systems and proprietary tools," adding that "MOS is a shift that brings transparency, openness and collaboration to the core of Bitcoin infrastructure." It emphasized: "No black boxes, no lock-in structures, no limits." MOS is built on a self-hosted mining architecture and is designed to communicate directly with other equipment through an integrated P2P network. Miners can flexibly manage mining scale and power output conditions by adjusting configuration settings, without a complex development process. Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said, "MOS is a complete operating platform that can scale from at-home mining setups to industrial mining facilities spanning multiple countries," adding that it will "lower barriers to entry for Bitcoin mining and take decentralization a step further." The industry views the move as part of Tether's strategy to extend beyond stablecoins into open-source Bitcoin mining infrastructure and strengthen its influence within the mining ecosystem.

Bitcoin (BTC) has broken down through the 100-week simple moving average (SMA)—widely viewed as a key long-term trend line—raising the possibility of a shift toward a medium- to long-term bearish regime. According to Cointelegraph on the 2nd (local time), Bitcoin recently closed on the weekly chart below the 100-week SMA (around $87,500). The indicator has served as a benchmark for gauging the macro trend across past cycles, and when price has fallen below it, history shows it has more often been followed by an extended range-bound consolidation and correction rather than a quick rebound. Crypto (digital-asset) analyst Brett noted, “With the exception of the COVID-19 crash in 2020, Bitcoin stayed below the 100-week SMA for a considerable period after losing it.” In fact, during the 2014–2015 cycle it spent about 357 days below the 100-week SMA; in 2018–2019, about 182 days; and after the 2022 FTX collapse, prices corrected while remaining below it for 532 days. A common feature across these periods was the formation of long-term accumulation zones rather than sharp snapback rallies. Stablecoin market-share metrics are also reinforcing bearish signals. According to analyst Sherlock, Tether (USDT) dominance has risen above 7.2% on a weekly basis, marking a meaningful breakout for the first time in two and a half years. In prior cycles, a move above 6.7% tended to coincide with a full-fledged bear market, suggesting risk-off sentiment is strengthening across the broader market. From a price-structure perspective, $85,000 is being flagged as a key resistance zone. During 2025 Q4, more than $120 billion in spot trading took place in the $85,000–$95,000 range, and with Bitcoin currently hovering around $78,000, many investors are sitting on losses. As a result, even if prices rebound, analysts say there is a strong likelihood of persistent breakeven selling emerging in that zone. In particular, the realized price of holders with a 1–3 month holding period is around $91,500, which is cited as a factor adding to overhead supply. Some technical analyses also argue that a weekly fractal structure similar to the 2022 bear market is emerging. At the time, Bitcoin formed a lower high, broke below the 100-week SMA, failed to sustain a rebound, and then underwent further correction before building a base in the $16,000–$25,000 range. If the current pattern repeats, analysts say the possibility of a medium- to long-term retest of the $40,000–$45,000 demand zone cannot be ruled out. Market participants are wary of the potential for increased near-term volatility, while viewing recapturing the 100-week moving average as a key inflection point for the medium-term trend. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim that level, the view that it could enter another “time-consuming consolidation/correction phase” is gaining traction.

Bitcoin (BTC) posted a year-to-date low, marking about a 40% correction from its all-time high. At the same time, heavy outflows from global Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) have continued, deepening broadly bearish sentiment across the market. On the 2nd (local time), Bitcoin fell as low as $74,555 intraday, setting a new low for the year. Over the same period, global Bitcoin ETPs saw net outflows of about $1.3 billion last week alone. Based on all digital asset (cryptocurrency) ETPs, net outflows totaled $1.73 billion, extending large-scale withdrawals for a second consecutive week. Asset manager Bitwise, in its weekly report, assessed that Bitcoin’s valuation has entered an "undervalued zone at the lowest level on record." According to Bitwise, the two-year moving market value-to-realized value (MVRV) z-score fell to an all-time low, a metric that in past cycles coincided with a 'fire-sale' phase. Market sentiment has also contracted sharply. Bitwise’s crypto asset sentiment index fell to levels seen during the mass liquidation episode in October 2023, and only 2 of 15 tracked indicators were found to be above their short-term trend lines. Still, some technical indicators are raising the possibility of a short-term rebound. Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to the 20–25 range, an area that in most cases since August 2023 was followed by rebounds of roughly around 10%. In the spot market, buy signals are also being detected. Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) on Binance and Coinbase has turned positive, suggesting an inflow of aggressive spot buying. Meanwhile, open interest (OI) is stagnant and funding rates remain in negative territory, supporting the view that this rebound attempt is being driven by spot demand rather than leverage. The fact that last week’s liquidations of Bitcoin long positions exceeded $1.8 billion is also cited as evidence that additional downside pressure may be limited. In derivatives markets, around $3 billion worth of short-position liquidation orders are stacked near $85,000, fueling talk that upside volatility could expand on a short-term rebound. Markets expect a volatile environment for the time being, as extremely bearish sentiment intersects with attempts at a technical rebound. Still, assessments suggest whether the medium-term trend turns will depend on a recovery in inflows and shifts in the macro environment.

As a US manufacturing gauge returned to expansion territory for the first time in about two years, a potential trend reversal is being discussed in the Bitcoin (BTC) market as well. According to Cointelegraph on the 2nd (local time), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the January manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 52.6. That is well above the market consensus of 48.5 and the highest level since August 2022. A PMI reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing economy has entered an expansion phase. The latest reading suggests the end of a manufacturing contraction trend that had persisted for 26 consecutive months. The ISM manufacturing PMI is regarded as a key indicator the Federal Reserve (Fed) and financial markets use to gauge the strength of the economy, inflation pressures and the direction of monetary policy. Following the release of the strong data, some digital-asset (cryptocurrency) analysts said it could also be a positive signal for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Bitcoin recently fell to the $75,000 range and is currently trading around $78,000. Looking at historical data, from mid-2020 through 2023, the up-and-down moves in the ISM manufacturing PMI overlapped to a significant extent with Bitcoin's price cycle. Joe Burnett, vice president of Bitcoin strategy at Strive, said, "Historically, a PMI rebound has been a signal of a shift to a risk-on environment," adding that "in 2013, 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin posted strong gains after manufacturing indicators rebounded." Not all experts agree with an optimistic interpretation, however. Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse noted, "Bitcoin does not always move in the same direction as the real economy. There have been cases where Bitcoin set new all-time highs even when the manufacturing PMI was flat or declining." Meanwhile, Bitcoin has seen heightened volatility since last October's large-scale leveraged liquidation event. The current price is about 38% below the peak from October last year, while gold and equity markets have remained relatively resilient over the same period. Even among institutional investors, 2026 Bitcoin price forecasts vary widely, ranging from $50,000 to $250,000.

Some investors in US spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have now slipped into negative territory, according to data. Bloomberg reported on the 2nd (local time) that the average purchase price for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors was calculated at roughly $84,100 per bitcoin. With Bitcoin recently trading around $79,000, ETF-based investors are estimated to be posting unrealized losses of about 8–9%. The pullback appears to reflect a combination of factors, including slower inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, a broader contraction in market liquidity, and Bitcoin losing appeal as a “macro hedge asset” in the current macroeconomic environment. Bloomberg added that while traditional safe havens such as gold and silver have been gaining, Bitcoin has failed to keep pace, and weakening new inflows via ETFs are intensifying downside pressure on prices.

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a clearly bearish phase in its price action, according to an assessment. On Feb. 2 (local time), Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, wrote on X that "from Jan. 28 to 31, Bitcoin fell about 15%, and on Jan. 31 alone it plunged 10%, triggering liquidations of long positions totaling more than $20 billion." In the process, Bitcoin slid intraday to around $75,600, dropping below $84,000—estimated to be the average purchase price of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—and came close to $74,400, the year-to-date low formed in April 2025. About 46% of total Bitcoin supply is currently in unrealized loss, data show. Thorn said that "in the near term, Bitcoin could fall further to the lower end of the supply gap formed around $70,000, and in the coming weeks to months, it cannot be ruled out that it will test the 200-week moving average (around $58,000) and the realized price (around $56,000)." He added that this zone has served as a long-term bottom area across multiple past cycles. While the pace of profit-taking by long-term holders has slowed recently, there has still been no clear sign of large-scale accumulation led by whale investors or long-term holders. Thorn also pointed out that Bitcoin has failed to rise in tandem even as traditional safe havens such as gold and silver have strengthened, weakening its narrative as a "hedge against currency debasement." Thorn added that "in the short term, the Bitcoin market could face additional downside pressure," and said that "long-term investors need to pay attention to key support levels and shifts in on-chain indicators."

Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its rebound, regaining the $79,000 level. As of 10:01 a.m. KST on the 3rd, Bitcoin was trading at $79,106.48, up 1.77% from the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap. On Upbit’s KRW market, it was trading at 117,279,000 won, up 0.26% from the previous day. Major altcoins including Ethereum (ETH) are also moving higher. Ethereum is currently up 2.05% day on day to $2,351.11 on CoinMarketCap, while XRP is up 0.77% to $1.61. Solana (SOL) is also up 1.56% from the previous day at $104.05.

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum (ETH), is continuing to sell Ethereum. According to Lookonchain on the 2nd (local time), Buterin sold 493 ETH over the past eight hours, with the sale totaling about $1.16 million. With volatility in ETH prices increasing recently, some interpret the key figure’s consecutive selling as a factor that could weigh on market sentiment in the short term. However, past cases have also raised the possibility that Vitalik’s ETH sales may be for personal fund management, donations, or foundation-related purposes.

Changpeng Zhao (CZ), co-founder of Binance, pushed back head-on against claims that he and Binance are being singled out as being behind the recent plunge in the cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) market, calling it “FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) driven by excessive imagination.” On the 2nd (local time), Zhao took to X to address, point by point, claims that ▲Binance sold a large amount of Bitcoin, triggering the weekend sell-off ▲Binance failed to convert the user protection fund (SAFU) into Bitcoin as promised ▲he personally “ended” the so-called “crypto supercycle,” a mocking allegation. Responding to the claim that he brought down the supercycle, he scoffed: “If I had that kind of power, I wouldn’t be here on Twitter with you,” adding, “Then I should also have the power to bring it back—I’d have been snapping my fingers all day.” Previously, CZ said in a recent interview that he was “less confident than before” about the supercycle thesis. He also drew a clear line on the Bitcoin selling rumor. CZ said the claim that “Binance itself sold $1 billion worth of BTC” is not true, explaining that “Binance wallet balances change only when users withdraw. Those volumes are the result of trades by users on the exchange.” He added that many users effectively use Binance like a wallet. On the SAFU fund, he said the issue is not a “delay” in conversion but “staggered execution.” He said, “We plan to convert SAFU assets from stablecoins into Bitcoin in tranches over 30 days,” adding, “We will not be buying on a decentralized exchange (DEX).” He went on to emphasize that “Binance is a centralized exchange (CEX) with world-class liquidity.” The explanation comes as some communities continue to pin blame on Binance. Since the flash crash on October 10 last year, which saw roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated, criticism has persisted that market liquidity has contracted sharply. In particular, Star Xu, founder of OKX, has publicly pointed to Binance as one of the causes of the incident.

An analysis suggests that even before Bitcoin (BTC) prices recently plunged to around $75,000, unusual warning signs had already been detected inside the market. On Feb. 2 (local time), CoinDesk reported that Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, pointed to persistent sell-side liquidity as the reason Bitcoin’s spot price repeatedly failed to break through levels below $90,000. According to Alan, Material Indicators’ order-book analysis tool FireCharts showed large sell orders repeatedly appearing just above the spot price, suppressing attempts to move higher. He described this as a “liquidity herding” strategy. When a large capital holder stacks sell supply in a visible area, market participants become more conscious of upside risk and turn more cautious about buying. As a result, the price moves sideways or is pushed lower, allowing that player to quietly absorb supply at more favorable levels. This strategy adjusts market psychology by using the order book itself, regardless of news or fundamental changes, and is said to appear frequently at times when it is advantageous to keep prices within a certain range, such as around options expiries. At the time, the order book also showed a thick bid wall in the $85,000–$87,500 range, serving as a short-term support level. The zone repeatedly absorbed selling pressure and propped up Bitcoin’s downside, but it was also a warning sign that a sharp bout of volatility could emerge if the price moved out of that range. Alan previously noted that “if this support zone holds, a rebound attempt could follow, but if it breaks, a sharp drop could occur amid thin liquidity.” After Bitcoin fell out of the bid-concentration zone, the pace of selling quickly accelerated and the price slid to around $75,000 in a short period. In particular, Alan has warned that if the monthly candle closes below about $87,500—roughly the 2026 level—it should be interpreted as a signal of entering “Bearadise.” This refers to a phase in which downside momentum combines with a breakdown in confidence and expands in a self-reinforcing manner. Experts note that large players using order-book liquidity to influence short-term price action is not new in the digital-asset (crypto) market. Still, this case draws attention because the reason Bitcoin failed to clear $90,000—and the subsequent plunge—had already been foreshadowed by the same structure.

A claim has emerged that current market conditions are clearly a bear market rather than a bull-market correction, and that Bitcoin treasury firms bear a significant share of the responsibility. On the 2nd (local time), Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote on X: “If you had to name who’s responsible for this bear market, it’s the treasury firms,” adding, “They absorbed and distorted real spot Bitcoin demand, and ultimately destroyed that demand.” The critique is that as companies aggressively incorporated Bitcoin into their treasury strategies, they boosted demand in the short term but later left the market structure more fragile. Moreno has previously characterized the market as a “bear market” since early November last year. At the time, Bitcoin was trading around $100,000 and, by some indicators, was nearing $110,000, yet he warned that “indicators used to find bottoms in a bull market are meaningless in the current phase.” Moreno stressed in particular: “After a new downswing begins, you shouldn’t try to find the bottom,” adding, “Bear-market bottoms form over several months.” In other words, rushed attempts to buy the dip based on short-term rebounds or technical signals could be risky. In the market, as large-scale liquidations have coincided with valuation losses on holdings at companies and institutions, the view is increasingly gaining traction that—consistent with Moreno’s warning—the market may be entering a structural adjustment phase.

As Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $75,000, the mark-to-market losses at Strategy led by Michael Saylor were found to have widened sharply. According to Lookonchain on the 2nd (local time), Strategy’s 712,647 BTC holdings were estimated to have unrealized losses exceeding $900 million amid the steep drop in Bitcoin. Strategy has pursued an aggressive Bitcoin buying strategy over the past several years to become the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, but the recent market correction has once again brought renewed attention to the volatility in the value of its holdings. Still, Strategy has maintained its long-standing stance of holding Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset regardless of short-term price moves, and markets are focusing on the fact that these losses are unrealized, not realized.

A fresh analysis warns that a heavy concentration of large-scale token unlocks over the coming week could increase short-term supply pressure, particularly for some altcoins. According to data from Tokenomist cited by Wu Blockchain on the 2nd (local time), tokens scheduled for “cliff unlocks” exceeding $5 million on a per-event basis over the next seven days include Hyperliquid (HYPE), XDC Network (XDC), Berachain (BERA) and Ethena (ENA). Because these tokens are structured to release large amounts at a specific point in time, they are seen as factors that could amplify short-term price volatility. Over the same period, tokens subject to “linear unlocks”—with at least $1 million supplied to the market per day on a rolling basis—include Rain (RAIN), Solana (SOL), Canton (CC), Official Trump (TRUMP), River (RIVER), Worldcoin (WLD) and Dogecoin (DOGE). While linear unlocks may have a more limited immediate impact, their accumulation could translate into sustained selling pressure. The total volume of token unlocks scheduled over the next seven days is estimated to exceed $638 million. With market liquidity having recently tightened, this increase in supply could directly affect the supply-demand dynamics of individual tokens, the analysis said.

Bitcoin (BTC) is extending its decline, slipping below the $75,000 level. As of 12:38 p.m. KST on the 2nd, Bitcoin was trading at $74,598.20, down 5.08% from the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap. On Upbit’s KRW market, it was trading at 110,741,000 won, down 2.32% from the previous day. Ethereum (ETH) has also broken below the $2,200 level. Ethereum is currently trading at $2,177 on CoinMarketCap, down 10.94% from the previous day, while XRP (XRP) is trading at $1.53, down 7.74% from the prior day. Solana (SOL) is also down 7.78% from the previous day, trading at $96.57.