Bitcoin rebounds to $74,000…derivatives-market sentiment still ‘bearish’

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $74,000 to hit its highest level in 40 days, but analysts say cautious sentiment persists in the derivatives market.

According to Cointelegraph on the 16th (local time), bitcoin broke through the $74,000 level that day. The move was seen as being driven by a risk-on mood fueled by a rise in the Nasdaq index, a decline in oil prices, and improving US manufacturing indicators.

Still, conviction behind the uptrend appears limited in the bitcoin derivatives market. The annualized premium on monthly bitcoin futures remained around 2% versus spot, well below the 4–8% range considered neutral. This is seen as reflecting weak investor sentiment over the past month.

Market participants have cited several factors behind bitcoin’s weakness in recent months. They point to the lack of a concrete implementation timetable for the US strategic bitcoin reserve policy, as well as a large liquidation event worth about $19 billion in October last year that sharply reduced market leverage.

The options market also shows investors’ defensive stance. Deribit’s bitcoin options delta skew has held around 13%, extending caution over downside risk for a fifth straight week.

Institutional demand continues. Strategy bought an additional 22,337 BTC last week, and US spot bitcoin ETFs also posted net inflows totaling about 11,117 BTC.

However, with uncertainty still high around macro factors such as Middle East geopolitical risks and oil-price volatility, the market view is that bearish sentiment in derivatives has not been fully dispelled.