[Analysis] "Bitcoin breaks below 50-week moving average… concerns grow about long-term trend damage"

Bitcoin (BTC) has strengthened technical bearish signals as it fell below the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), which had functioned as a long-term support.

On the 17th (local time), CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole said, "Bitcoin formed a large bearish candle, falling about 10% over seven days through November 16, and clearly closed below the 50-week line." Godbole diagnosed this decline as "the neutralization of a major demand zone and a shift from an established bullish pattern to a cautionary phase." The 50-week line had been a key support that led several rebounds since early 2023, but after the breach it is likely to become a zone favorable to selling in the short term. Accordingly, market participants may shift from the existing 'buy the dip' strategy to a 'sell the bounce' strategy.

Godbole pointed out that Bitcoin's flow is similar to the stock pattern of MicroStrategy (ticker: MSTR), which turned into a long-term downtrend after breaking its 50-week line. MicroStrategy fell after dipping below the 50-week line in September and was recently pushed down to $200, its lowest level since October 2024. He warned, "Bitcoin could also experience similar structural pressure."

The 50-week line is now acting as resistance around $102,868. Godbole emphasized, "Until a sustained weekly close back above the 50-week line is confirmed, it is difficult to judge a return to a bullish trend," and said, "an upside break of key technical levels is necessary."