[Analysis] "Bitcoin: Short-term correction, trading range, and bullish reversal all possible"

An analysis found that three scenarios are possible as the Bitcoin (BTC) composite index has entered a pessimistic adjustment zone (Ratio about 0.72).

On the 18th (local time), CryptoQuant author GugaOnChain said, "Based on the Bitcoin composite index, the market is leaving all three scenarios open at the same time," and analyzed, "In the pessimistic adjustment phase, if the Ratio falls below 0.75, selling by short-term investors will intensify and the price may adjust to $87,500, the key support zone maintained since March."

On the other hand, if the Ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, the market could continue a trading range between $90,000 and $110,000, which can be interpreted as a stable phase centered on position holding.

A bullish reversal scenario was also presented. The author analyzed, "If the Ratio breaks above and settles above 1.0, major cycle indicators such as NUPL and MVRV will show a recovery trend, and the price could extend to the $150,000–$175,000 range, similar to the bull market patterns of 2017 and 2021." However, he added, "Currently, liquidity weakness and a deteriorating macro environment are combined, greatly strengthening selling pressure," and "whether reversal signals appear in the future will be the key variable that determines the medium-term direction."