Bitcoin falls again… 'NVIDIA effect' also fades amid U.S. jobs data and Fed warnings

Bitcoin hits lowest level in 7 months

U.S. employment data unexpectedly strong

Rapid cooling of rate cut expectations

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain the rebound driven by NVIDIA and again hit its lowest level in seven months. Mixed U.S. employment data and warning remarks from key Federal Reserve officials combined to sharply dampen risk appetite across risky assets.

On the 19th (local time), according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin fell intraday to $85,868, marking its lowest level since April. The rally that had recovered to around $93,000 the day before on NVIDIA's 'earnings surprise' lost strength in one day, plunging about 8%.

The immediate trigger for the decline was the September employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than double the market expectation (50,000). The market, which had been expecting interest rate cuts based on a slowing labor market, immediately turned to disappointment. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up 0.1% percentage point from the previous month, showing mixed signals.

The Financial Times (FT) analyzed, "These divergent indicators are widening views between hawks and doves within the Fed," and "this is a factor that further fuels policy uncertainty over whether rates will be cut in December." As policy direction wavered, pressure on risky assets increased, and Bitcoin came under renewed downward pressure.

Market anxiety was further amplified by remarks from Fed Governor Lisa Cook. She warned, "High valuations are appearing in equities, corporate bonds, housing, and leveraged loans," adding, "this increases the risk of a sharp market decline." Interpreted as a message that asset prices have already entered overheated territory and corrections could occur at any time, investors' risk-averse tendencies strengthened.

Governor Cook also pointed out that "increased hedge fund participation in the government bond market is raising liquidity risk," highlighting concerns about shrinking liquidity. She further mentioned that "AI can increase financial efficiency while also creating new risks," weighing on growth stocks and risky assets more broadly.

The outlook is dominated by caution. A CryptoQuant contributor at Xwin Japan Research diagnosed, "Holdings of stablecoins on exchanges have reached a record high of $72 billion, so there is ample capacity for inflows," but added, "actual deployment is being delayed due to macro uncertainty." He went on to forecast, "If the Fed does not cut rates in December, Bitcoin is likely to trade in the $60,000–$80,000 range through year-end."

Crypto media Cointelegraph said, "Downside risk has not been completely removed," and warned, "If Bitcoin breaks the $89,253 support level, losses could widen to $87,800, and even further to $83,000."