AI bubble theory calming… Will the KOSPI escape the 'strong start, weak finish' market? [Preview of today's market]

The KOSPI index is drawing attention on the 21st as to whether it can break away from the 'strong start, weak finish' market amid hopes that controversy over an 'artificial intelligence (AI) bubble' is easing. Analysts say Google's AI service Gemini 3.0 is presenting a new direction for the AI industry, and concerns about AI companies' profitability—which had sparked global market adjustments—are subsiding.

On the previous day the KOSPI closed at 3,857.78, up 0.30% from the previous trading day. The index, which had risen to 3,946 intraday, showed a 'strong start, weak finish' pattern as it gave back some of its gains toward the end. Among top market-cap stocks, Samsung Electronics (2.69%) briefly 'touched' KRW 100,000 but reduced its intraday gains and failed to recover KRW 100,000 at the close, while SK Hynix (-0.19%) turned downward in the latter part of the session.

In overnight New York trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.43% from the previous close to 47,112.45. The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index closed at 6,765.88, up 0.91%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq index finished at 23,025.59, up 0.67% from the previous trading day.

The fact that U.S. markets, which had fallen last week due to AI bubble concerns, all rose is analyzed as being influenced by renewed speculation that the U.S. central bank (Fed) will cut its policy rate next month. The market-changing effects in the AI industry triggered by the release and positive reviews of Google's Gemini 3.0 and the scalability of Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) continued that day. NVIDIA, the leading AI stock, was the only one among the 'Magnificent Seven' to gain more than 2% that day. Alphabet, Google's parent company, rose more than 1% on the TPU scalability news, and Meta jumped 3.78%.

It remains to be seen whether the domestic market will follow the U.S. market's gains. Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said, "A fickle market that can change mood at any time is continuing," diagnosing, "The recent KOSPI has become weaker than before."

Advice was also given to pay attention to the growing expectation of a Fed rate cut. Seo Sang-young, Executive Director of the WM Innovation Division at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "The expectations index indicating the outlook for the next six months in the U.S. has contracted from 71.8 to 63.2, falling below 80.0, which is interpreted as a signal of recession for 10 consecutive months."

Reporter Eunhyuk Ryu ehryu@hankyung.com