[Analysis] "Bitcoin, average cost-basis key zone… 79k defense vs 104.5k recovery likely to determine direction"

The Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain average cost-basis indicator is showing clear price ranges that can gauge the current cycle's position, an analysis said.

On the 30th (local time), RugaResearch of CryptoQuant analyzed, "The average cost basis of short-term investors is around 104,500 dollars, a range that has typically functioned as the first support and resistance in bull markets," adding, "It must settle above that price for a healthy uptrend to be reestablished."

He also assessed, "The average cost basis of institution-focused U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors is about 79,000 dollars. If it breaks below this level, position stress and leveraged liquidation pressure could increase, making it a price range where market defense attempts are likely to be strong."

The average cost basis of long-term investors is the lowest among the three groups and is known as a key value range where market bottoms began to form in past cycles. The author said, "Ultimately, the market will go into a completely different phase depending on whether a revisit to 79,000 dollars occurs first or a recovery to 104,500 dollars occurs first," and added, "If the top is recovered, a renewed attempt at an all-time high could open up, but if the bottom is re-approached, structural and psychological pressures could both expand."