"MicroStrategy 'bankruptcy threshold', Bitcoin $23,000…2028 is key"

An analysis has emerged that MicroStrategy, the world's largest Bitcoin (BTC) holding company, has a 'bankruptcy threshold' at a Bitcoin price of $23,000.

On the 3rd, according to the industry, domestic web3 research firm Tiger Research recently analyzed in a report that MicroStrategy's 'Static Bankruptcy' critical level is a Bitcoin price of $23,000. This means that until the Bitcoin price falls below $23,000, the likelihood of MicroStrategy going bankrupt is low.

Tiger Research analyzed, "Static Bankruptcy occurs when a company cannot repay its debts even if it liquidates all its assets," and added, "As of this year, MicroStrategy's static bankruptcy level (by Bitcoin price) is about $23,000." It continued, "The threshold rose from $18,000 in 2024 to $23,000 in 2025," and said, "If (the Bitcoin price) falls below that price range, the value of Bitcoin holdings will fall below liabilities and the company will be in a distressed state on a balance-sheet basis."

The key is 2028, three years from now. Tiger Research said, "The core (of bankruptcy risk) is not the size or maturity of convertible bond issuance but the timing of holders exercising their put options," and added, "Large convertible bonds issued last year and this year are mostly structured around 2028 put option exercise dates." Tiger Research said, "2028 is an important year in which MicroStrategy must prove its ability to refinance," and added, "If the Bitcoin price approaches the bankruptcy threshold in 2028 or market conditions deteriorate, investors are more likely to exercise put options rather than wait for maturity."

Tiger Research also mentioned the possibility of MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin. It said, "The large convertible bonds issued in 2024–2025 generate a potential repayment amount of $6.4 billion in 2028," and added, "If market conditions worsen and preferred stock and at-the-market (ATM) issuance and new convertible bonds all become impossible, MicroStrategy would have no choice but to sell Bitcoin." It added, "Assuming a Bitcoin price of $90,000, MicroStrategy would need to sell about 71,000 bitcoins to fulfill such obligations," and said, "The sales may not end as a one-off, so if MicroStrategy fails to raise funds in 2028, there could be significant selling pressure sufficient to affect the entire Bitcoin market."