'ETF net inflow streak' yet 17% plunge… XRP, can it rebound within the year?

XRP ETF, 18th consecutive net inflow

Top altcoin in ETF performance

Token price has plunged 17% since launch

"Pressed down by selling pressure in the spot market"

Possibility of a late rally as well

XRP price has struggled despite steady capital inflows into U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). There is a view that ETF inflows may be reflected in XRP's price with a time lag.

On the 11th (KST), crypto data analytics firm SoSoValue reported that the U.S. XRP spot ETF recorded 18 consecutive trading days of net inflows as of that day. The XRP spot ETF, which launched on the 14th of last month, has not posted a single day of net outflows. Cumulative net inflows were USD 954 million (about ₩1.4 trillion) as of that day.

Compared with major altcoin spot ETFs that began trading around the same time — such as Solana (SOL), Hedera (HBAR), and Dogecoin (DOGE) — its performance is markedly superior. The Solana spot ETF launched about two weeks before XRP but has accumulated only USD 661 million in net inflows. Net inflows for other altcoin spot ETFs remain at the level of a few million dollars.

However, XRP has been languishing around $2. XRP was trading at $2.00 on CoinMarketCap as of 11:21 p.m. (KST), down 2.62% from the previous day. Compared with the ETF's launch on the 14th of last month ($2.4), it has actually fallen nearly 17%.

Analysts say selling pressure in the spot market is the main reason for the downturn. Crypto news outlet CoinDesk noted, "XRP rose to $2.17 on the previous day (the 10th) showing signs of a rebound, but selling poured in on the spot market and it could not break the resistance line," adding that "despite a surge in trading volume, investors were offloading positions, preventing a sustained upswing."

Comparing Bitcoin and Ethereum

XRP is not the only asset to experience short-term weakness immediately after an ETF launch. In Bitcoin's case, after the spot ETF launched on January 11 last year, it began a sustained upward trend around the end of the same month, about three weeks later. Two months after the ETF launch, in March, it broke the $70,000 level and set a new all-time high.

Ethereum took longer. Ethereum's price surpassed $4,900 and reached a record high only in August, 13 months after its ETF launched last year.

Industry participants say the XRP ETF's recent performance compares favorably with Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. The cumulative net inflow/outflow trends for the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs support this view. Specifically, the Bitcoin spot ETF saw USD 1.64 billion in net inflows over the first 17 days after launch. The Ethereum spot ETF, by contrast, experienced net outflows of USD 366 million over 17 days.

"A late reevaluation may occur"

Given that major crypto assets like Bitcoin experienced periods of stagnation after ETF launches before rising, analysts say XRP may also need a period of readjustment. An industry source said, "As long as inflows via the spot ETF continue, if selling pressure in the spot market eases, XRP could enter a late-stage reevaluation phase."

Crypto analyst Chad Steingraber said, "The XRP ETF has absorbed about 506 million tokens in less than a month since its launch," and added, "XRP's weighting in the newly launched Bitwise Crypto 10 Fund (BITW) reaching 5% is also a factor that could expand institutional demand." He added, "XRP's price could surge from the current $2 to $10 within the next year."