‘Pro-Trump’ Kevin Warsh tipped as Powell’s successor Trump appears to have settled on Warsh after meeting him Backed tariffs, also urged cuts to the policy rate Markets: “more hawkish than expected” Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor (photo), is reportedly the pick to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the U.S. central bank. With U.S. President Donald Trump having signaled he would announce the next chair candidate on the morning of the 30th (Eastern time; the night of the 30th to early morning of the 31st in Korea), major overseas outlets including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg News reported in unison that Warsh would be appointed. Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that the administration is preparing to allow President Trump to nominate Warsh as the next Fed chair. The outlet said Trump met privately with Warsh the previous day and had firmed up his intention to appoint him as the next Fed chair. Following the reports, betting site Polymarket saw the probability of Warsh being nominated as the next Fed chair surge to 94%. Speaking at an event held at the Trump Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. the previous day, Trump said, “Tomorrow morning I will announce the Fed chair,” adding, “It will be someone everyone in finance knows.” He described the new chair as “excellent and highly respected.” Powell’s term as chair runs through May. Even so, Trump’s early nomination of a successor is being interpreted as pressure on the Fed. After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting on the 28th left the policy rate unchanged, Trump called Powell an “idiot” and stressed that “the United States should have the lowest interest rates of any country in the world.” Trump is expected to keep pressing for lower rates under the new chair as well. Warsh, too, has appeared aligned with Trump’s views, backing tariff policy and urging the Fed to cut rates. Still, markets on the day interpreted Warsh as a “hawkish dove” relative to other contenders previously mentioned. Compared with Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer for global fixed income—said to have been in contention until the end—Warsh is seen as less dovish (more inclined toward monetary easing). After the reports, the dollar rose and U.S. Treasury yields climbed (bond prices fell). Warsh had also been floated as a Fed chair candidate during Trump’s first term. He was appointed a Fed governor in 2006 under the George W. Bush administration and served until 2011. Pro-Trump, former Wall Street hand and Coupang director…Warsh may speed up rate cuts Backed by Wall Street heavyweights including JPMorgan’s CEO…one-on-one with Trump ‘final vetting’ Four names had been mentioned as potential candidates for the next Fed chair: former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, Fed governor Christopher Waller, Fed governor Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s CIO. All believe the policy rate should be lower than it is now. Still, analysts say Warsh likely emerged as the pick as Trump sought someone who could reduce controversy over Fed independence and secure market confidence. ◇ From hawk to dove As recently as the 27th, Polymarket put Rieder—who has openly supported rate cuts—at a 54.2% chance of being appointed. Warsh’s odds stood at just 29%, reflecting his past hawkish (tightening-leaning) stance. He studied economics at Stanford University, then graduated from Harvard Law School and Harvard Business School. He later built experience on Wall Street, including serving as a vice president in Morgan Stanley’s M&A division. Under the George W. Bush administration, he was appointed the youngest-ever Fed governor in 2006. During the 2008 global financial crisis, he opposed the Fed’s quantitative easing. Many have also viewed his resignation in 2011—despite having seven years left in his term, after a second round of quantitative easing began—as stemming from opposition to the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy. But after the launch of the Trump administration’s second term, he began to express more dovish (easing-leaning) views. He is also said to have told Trump in an interview for the chair role that rates should be cut. Some analysts say support from Wall Street’s mainstream camp boosted Warsh. The Financial Times (FT), citing sources, reported: “Wall Street heavyweights such as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon privately told Trump allies that ‘Warsh, a tested former Fed governor, is the safer choice than Rieder.’” Warsh currently serves on the boards of Coupang and UPS. ◇ Will he cut rates? Trump has voiced dissatisfaction whenever the economy showed signs of recovering, arguing that the Fed tries to curb inflation by raising rates. More recently, he has said the U.S. policy rate should be lowered to below 1% per year. The current U.S. policy rate is 3.5–3.75% per year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is negative on such aggressive cuts. Warsh is seen as having a compromise approach. Damien Boey, a portfolio strategist at Australia’s Wilson Asset Management, told Reuters, “Warsh has publicly stated that he prefers lower rates,” adding, “but he is attaching a condition for rate cuts that the Fed should shrink its assets.” Trump also appears to have given points for such caution. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) noted: “Trump wants a new chair who will follow his demands to lower rates, while also winning enough trust from Wall Street and Fed colleagues to carry it through.” Bloomberg News likewise said “Trump wants a ‘unicorn,’” seeking someone who can secure market credibility while remaining loyal to him. That reflects a painful memory: Powell supported rate cuts when he was appointed in 2017, then later broke with Trump’s line. Trump has publicly said, “I regret not appointing Warsh back then.” Attention is also turning to what Powell will do after a successor is appointed. His term as chair runs through May. His legal term as a Fed governor runs through the end of January 2028. For that reason, some say he could remain in his seat as a governor. A Fed chair nominee must clear a Senate confirmation vote to take office. Reporter Han Kyung-jae hankyung@hankyung.com
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