Editor's PiCK
[Analysis] "Bitcoin adjusts by more than 20% whenever BOJ raises rates"…yen variable resurfaces
Summary
- Analysts said the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s policy rate hikes have been repeatedly exerting significant downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.
- They said that at each of the BOJ's rate hike moments in 2024, Bitcoin recorded adjustments exceeding 20%.
- They said that with the prospect of further BOJ rate hikes, downside risks to prices of risk assets such as Bitcoin are being reemphasized.
An analysis found that the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s policy rate hikes have repeatedly applied downward pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) prices.
On the 14th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that on-chain and macro analyst AndrewBTC said, "Since 2024, whenever the BOJ has raised rates, Bitcoin has recorded pullbacks exceeding 20%." Specifically, he explained that adjustments of about 23% in March 2024, about 26% in July 2024, and about 31% in January 2025 occurred.
He warned that if the BOJ raises rates again this week, similar downside risks could reappear. Indeed, a recent Reuters survey showed that many economists expect the BOJ to raise rates further at its December monetary policy meeting.
The core background of this analysis is Japan's role in global liquidity. BOJ rate hikes lead to a stronger yen and have triggered the unwinding of 'yen carry trades' in which investors borrowed low-yield yen to invest in higher-risk assets. In this process, global financial market liquidity contracts, and alongside deleveraging, risky assets like Bitcoin are directly pressured — a pattern that has repeated.
Some in the market have raised more pessimistic forecasts. Crypto-asset analyst EX also remarked, "If the BOJ proceeds with rate hikes, one cannot rule out the possibility that Bitcoin's price could fall below $70,000."
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.
