Kevin Warsh surges as frontrunner for next Fed chair… leads on Polymarket

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

It reported that in the prediction market Polymarket, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh's probability of becoming the next Fed chair was calculated at 48%.
It said this change is analyzed to have been influenced by President Trump's remarks.
It reported that former Fed governor Warsh's views on monetary policy are similar to President Trump's, and that he agrees with interest-rate cuts.

The race to appoint the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is rapidly changing. In prediction markets, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has emerged as a leading candidate.

On the 16th (local time), according to the Koveysi Letter, Kevin Warsh's probability of becoming the next Fed chair on Polymarket was calculated at 48%. This figure surpasses that of another leading candidate who had been leading just hours earlier, Kevin Hassett.

This change is analyzed to have been influenced by recent comments by President Trump. Earlier, in a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) interview on the 13th, when asked "Is Warsh the top candidate?", President Trump replied "I think so," and assessed that "both Kevins are great."

Trump also mentioned that Warsh's views on monetary policy are not markedly different from his own. He said, "Warsh agrees with my view that interest rates should be lowered. The others I mentioned are the same."