'Should I buy 'robot·bio stocks'... Reasons to expect a year-end 'Santa rally' [Today's market preview]'

As the year-end approaches, expectations for a Santa rally are growing. Although concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble remain, analyses suggest the stock market could regain momentum thanks to the government's KOSDAQ market revitalization policies.

According to the Korea Exchange on the 22nd, the KOSPI index fell 3.52% over the recent five trading days (15–19). Amid a sharp rise in the won–dollar exchange rate and AI bubble concerns, foreign investors withdrew 3.303 trillion won from the stock market. The KOSDAQ also slipped 2.35% during the same period as caution persisted. Foreign investors were net buyers of Samsung Electronics (preferred) (154 billion won), Doosan (5.7 billion won), Kia (56 billion won), and LG Energy Solution (55 billion won), and net sellers of Samsung Electronics (-1.457 trillion won), SK Hynix (-367 billion won), and Samsung Bioepis Holdings (-144 billion won).

Heo Jae-hwan, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities, said, "The KOSPI index has retreated back to the 4,000 level due to AI bubble concerns," and added, "The KOSDAQ appears to have narrowed its decline in expectation of the government's revitalization policies." The won–dollar exchange rate closed at 1,478 won on the 20th. It jumped to 1,482.1 won intraday on the 17th, marking the highest level in about eight months. Park Sang-hyun, an analyst at iM Securities, said, "Most major events that could significantly affect global foreign exchange markets have concluded," and added, "The government is expected to actively manage the exchange rate through measures such as large-scale currency hedging by the National Pension Service at year-end." He forecast the won–dollar rate would move in the 1,450–1,490 won range this week.

Experts predict a strong KOSDAQ market at year-end. The Financial Services Commission on the 19th announced the 'Measures to Enhance KOSDAQ Confidence + Innovation' in its departmental briefing. To revitalize the KOSDAQ market, it will introduce a tailored tech-special-listing system aimed at innovative companies in AI, the space industry, energy, etc. It plans to fully redesign listing review and delisting systems to quickly remove insolvent companies.

NH Investment & Securities expects the KOSPI index to fluctuate in the 3,850–4,200 range this week. Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at the firm, said, "As the government's restructuring of listing and delisting mechanisms and policies to attract institutional investors take effect, the KOSDAQ index's potential for further gains will expand," adding, "Improved earnings in the KOSDAQ IT sector due to capital investment by large semiconductor firms is also judged to be a supporting factor for index gains." He added, "Strengthening delisting of insolvent firms, amendments to the Commercial Act, and passage of bills related to tender offers will act as factors to reduce the KOSDAQ discount."

There was also advice to look for buying opportunities focused on top market-cap stocks. Tae Yoon-seon, an analyst at KB Securities, said, "The KOSDAQ market typically shows strength in January–February," adding, "It is advisable to pay attention to top market-cap names in the robot and bio sectors, which have been relatively sidelined."

Meanwhile, on the last trading day of last week, the three major U.S. indices closed higher on the 19th. The Dow Jones rose 0.38%, the S&P 500 rose 0.88%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.31% as investor sentiment toward tech stocks improved following Micron's strong earnings report.

Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said, "Micron's strong results are a change that positively affects earnings outlooks for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix," and predicted, "The KOSPI, led by semiconductors, will show an uptrend this week."

He added, "The KOSPI index's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is currently 9.88 times, indicating undervaluation," and said, "Sectors with high investment appeal — including pharmaceuticals and bio, as well as internet, automobiles, cosmetics and apparel, and hotels and leisure — are also positive from an investment perspective."

Jo Ara, reporter rrang123@hankyung.com