- It reported that the U.S. Congress's comprehensive virtual asset bill is assessed as having a 50~60% chance of being enacted in 2026.
- The Senate Banking Committee and Agriculture Committee have each drafted different bills, and coordination of SEC and CFTC jurisdictional coordination remains a key issue.
- Early 2026 is cited as the critical legislative period, but midterm elections, federal budget negotiations, and other complex variables are cited as factors that could weaken legislative momentum.
- The article was summarized using an artificial intelligence-based language model.
- Due to the nature of the technology, key content in the text may be excluded or different from the facts.
Attention is focused on whether the U.S. Congress can pass a comprehensive bill governing the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) market in 2026. The industry views the probability at about half, while seeing progress in Senate deliberations as a key variable.
On the 24th (local time), crypto-focused U.S. media The Block reported that the industry assesses the probability of the bill being enacted in 2026 at 50~60%. The ongoing discussions between Republicans and Democrats are viewed positively, but analysts say many issues remain to be resolved.
Kevin Wysocki, Anchorage Digital's head of policy, said, "It is very positive that members of Congress are engaging in active dialogue across party lines," while adding, "Because this is a complex bill that spans banking law, securities law, and commodities law, coordination is not easy."
Currently in the Senate, the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee are each drafting virtual asset market structure bills. The Banking Committee's draft divides jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and introduces the concept of 'ancillary assets' to distinguish non-security virtual assets. The Agriculture Committee has proposed a separate bill that would expand the CFTC's authority, and the two bills need to be reconciled.
A vote in the Senate Banking Committee that had been discussed for this year was not held, and the committee said negotiations continue with a goal of a markup in early 2026. However, major issues remain, including whether to allow interest payments on stablecoins, how to regulate DeFi, and the dispute over whether the SEC or the CFTC should be the ultimate decision-maker.
In addition, President Donald Trump's conflicts of interest regarding virtual asset businesses and vacancies among CFTC commissioners are acting as variables in the negotiations. In particular, the CFTC is likely to play a central role in future virtual asset regulation, but it currently operates under a single-commissioner structure that includes the chairman, which has drawn strong Democratic opposition.
Industry sources say the process is complicated because a Senate bill must pass committee and then be reconciled with a House bill. There are also concerns that legislative momentum could weaken if midterm elections, federal budget negotiations, and the possibility of a shutdown coincide.
The industry views the first half of next year, especially Q1 and Q2, as the effective key period for legislation. If Senate deliberations do not progress during this period, there is a prospect that the virtual asset market structure bill could again become a long-term issue.
