Prediction markets face a turning point in 2026… 'data infrastructure' vs 'gambling site'

Prediction markets, which allow betting on various events, recorded their largest growth on record this year, and attention is focused on whether they can prove their value by 2026.

On the 26th (Korean time), digital asset outlet The Block reported that Kalshi and Polymarket succeeded in raising large-scale investments and were valued at $11 billion and $9 billion, respectively.

Next year features major events such as the U.S. midterm elections and the 2026 World Cup in North America, so it is expected to be an important year for prediction markets. Leo Chan, founder of SportsTensor, Leo Chan, co-founder of SportsTensor, said, "Demand is growing among financial institutions and companies to use prediction market data to analyze public opinion and future events," and "prediction markets are regarded not as mere betting but as data infrastructure that collects collective intelligence." In fact, Kalshi has partnered with CNBC and CNN, and Polymarket has formed partnerships with Yahoo Finance and the UFC.

However, controversies over the reliability of trading volume statistics remain a challenge. There have been suggestions that publicly reported trading volume figures may be overstated compared to actual user activity.

Ethical issues are also a task to be solved. The Block said, "So-called 'mention markets' that bet on individual athletes' personal performance or whether a celebrity will speak are vulnerable to market manipulation," and "some experts have voiced concerns that if such products spread, prediction markets could be perceived not as information-based forecasting tools but as gambling sites," it reported.