"Bitcoin missed this year's projected peak…a year that revealed the limits of price forecasts"

This year, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is set to be remembered as a year that, contrary to optimistic price forecasts at the start of the year, underwent a major correction and once again highlighted the uncertainty of cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) price predictions.

According to cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) outlet CoinDesk on the 30th, Bitcoin is heading into year-end down more than 30% from its intra-year high (126,223 dollars). It is likely to finish the year down on an annual basis for the first time since the 2022 'crypto winter'.

At the start of the year, optimism prevailed in the market. Some forecasts were unrealistically high, and even relatively conservative targets once seemed achievable. However, after the October crash, the prevailing assessment is that many forecasts failed to keep pace with market trends. At that time, forced liquidations of more than 19 billion dollars occurred, and about 500 billion dollars of total cryptoasset market capitalization vanished.

Earlier, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, predicted Bitcoin could reach 1 million dollars by the end of 2025, and Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, also mentioned a year-end possibility of 500,000~1,000,000 dollars based on ETF inflows and supply constraints. Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya similarly offered a 500,000 dollars forecast.

More cautious forecasts were ultimately judged excessive as well. JPMorgan raised its year-end target for Bitcoin to 165,000 dollars in early October before the crash, and MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor mentioned at the end of October that Bitcoin could reach around 150,000 dollars by year-end. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy purchased about 1 billion dollars worth of additional Bitcoin in mid-month.

Most of the price forecasts released over the year ultimately missed. VanEck set a first-quarter peak at 180,000 dollars, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hogan had expected 200,000 dollars, Fundstrat's Tom Lee maintained a 200,000~250,000 dollars forecast until October, and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes also held similar forecasts through November.

Some figures adjusted their forecasts downward relatively early. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz lowered his year-end range to 120,000~125,000 dollars in October, and Standard Chartered cut its December target from 200,000 dollars to 100,000 dollars.

The outlet said, "2025 has once again shown that Bitcoin can mercilessly topple any model or narrative," and "it reminded the market that predictions are easy, but being right is extremely rare."