Morgan Stanley: "Tesla delivery volume in line with expectations… Point to watch is robotaxi"

Morgan Stanley said Tesla's (Tesla) recent quarterly results were within the market's expected range and diagnosed that the key variables for future stock direction will be robotaxi and advances in full self-driving (FSD) technology.

According to economic breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg on the 2nd (local time), Morgan Stanley maintained its investment rating for Tesla at 'Equalweight' and its price target of $425 in a recent report. Tesla delivered 418,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below market consensus but above buy-side expectations.

Unlike vehicle deliveries, the energy business showed clear growth. Fourth-quarter energy storage deployments were recorded at 14.2 gigawatt-hours (GWh), a quarterly record that exceeded market expectations.

Morgan Stanley maintained its 2026 outlook for Tesla at vehicle deliveries of 1.6 million and energy storage deployments of 64 GWh. It said this suggests that even if electric vehicle sales growth moderates, the energy business can help supplement results.

However, it identified robotaxi and progress in unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) technology as the most important catalysts for the medium- to long-term stock price. Morgan Stanley analyzed that whether there is substantive progress in these technologies in the first half of 2026 will determine long-term sales growth and a revaluation of the company's value.

Morgan Stanley added, "Tesla's core investment thesis is now not simply electric vehicle sales but the expansion of autonomous driving and platform businesses," and said visible achievements related to robotaxi will become the market's evaluation standard going forward.