"US airstrike could give China a pretext to invade Taiwan"…Will US-China hegemonic competition expand? [Analysis+]
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- The U.S. airstrike on Venezuela was reported as being interpreted as a warning message to China.
- They analyzed that this incident could serve as an opportunity for the US-China hegemonic competition front to expand from trade and tariffs to the military domain.
- They stated that if the U.S. intervenes in Venezuela's oil exports and repayments of loans to China, the conflict between the two countries could intensify.
- The article was summarized using an artificial intelligence-based language model.
- Due to the nature of the technology, key content in the text may be excluded or different from the facts.
The U.S. airstrike on Venezuela and the sudden arrest of President Nicolás Maduro have been interpreted as a warning message to China, and some analysts say this could expand the front of the two countries' hegemonic competition — which had mainly focused on trade and tariffs — to other areas.
On the 3rd (local time), U.S. Reuters and Britain's The Guardian analyzed that the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the ousting of President Nicolás Maduro could set a precedent that China might use to invade Taiwan.
Reuters said this incident could weaken the international 'norm of deterrence' against China and Russia, noting, "If aggressive military intervention is tolerated, such interventions could become easier elsewhere, including Taiwan."
It added that China has shown interest in strategic resources and assets in Latin America such as Venezuelan oil, Peruvian ports, Bolivian lithium, Brazilian soybeans, and Chilean copper, saying, "This plainly reveals the deeper geopolitical tension underlying the U.S.'s renewed assertion of hegemony in the Western Hemisphere."
Jeffrey Robertson, founding head of the London law firm Doughty Street Chambers and former president of the UN Special Court for Sierra Leone, told The Guardian, "The most obvious consequence of this invasion is that China will seize the opportunity to invade Taiwan," analyzing, "Now — with Trump's invasion of Venezuela and the precedent of appeasement toward Russia, which invaded Ukraine — is the most opportune time (for China to invade Taiwan)."
President Donald Trump said at the press conference that U.S. oil companies would enter Venezuela to increase crude oil production as a way to fund transitional governance and national reconstruction, and that U.S. military forces would also play a physical role.
Venezuela holds about 303 billion barrels of oil, equivalent to about 17% of the world's reserves, but due to U.S. sanctions, lack of investment, and mismanagement of the state oil company, average daily oil production last year was about 1.1 million barrels — only about 1% of global production.
Venezuela exports 900,000 barrels of oil per day, and its largest importer is China. According to Reuters, as of December last year China imported on average about 600,000–660,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude. Venezuela reportedly owes its largest creditor, China, about $10 billion (about 14.46 trillion won), and has repaid it linked to oil exports.
If the U.S. takes control of Venezuela to control oil exports and intervenes in repayments of loans to China, the conflict between the two countries is likely to deepen.
At the press conference, President Trump said, "We have gone beyond the 'Monroe Doctrine,'" adding, "America's hegemony in the Western Hemisphere will never again be in doubt."
The Monroe Doctrine is a foreign policy announced by President James Monroe in 1982 that advocated for the exclusion of European interference and isolationism regarding the American continents; during Trump's second term it has been interpreted as a warning message to China and Russia, which had been increasing influence in Latin America.
Sooyoung Kim, Hankyung.com reporter swimmingk@hankyung.com
