PiCK

Market stays cautious despite Bitcoin hitting a four-week high…$78,000 breakout is key

Source

YM Lee

Summary

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded to about $72,720, but derivatives markets and on-chain indicators still suggest cautious investor sentiment.
In the options market, the put-option premium is about 10% higher than calls, and around 43% of circulating Bitcoin is at a loss—meaning selling into a rebound could limit gains, the report said.
Hashprice, a measure of mining profitability, has fallen to around $30; $76,000 could act as key resistance as it matches Strategy’s average cost basis, and a recovery to $78,700 may take time, it added.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing a rebound after posting its highest level in about a month, but derivatives markets and on-chain indicators still point to cautious investor sentiment.

According to a March 5 (local time) report by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin rose to around $72,720 on the day, marking its highest level in four weeks. That represents a roughly 22% rebound from the trough formed near $60,000 on Feb. 6.

However, positioning in derivatives markets suggests trades hedging downside risk remain dominant. In the Bitcoin options market, put options are trading at premiums about 10% higher than call options, indicating strong demand for downside protection. This is well above the typical neutral-market range of -6% to 6%.

On-chain data also reflect investors’ cautious stance. Glassnode data show about 43% of Bitcoin currently in circulation is sitting in the red based on purchase price. In late January, when Bitcoin was around $90,000, the share of supply at a loss was about 30%.

The market is also weighing the risk that investors currently underwater could sell into a rebound, potentially capping upside momentum.

Conditions in the mining industry are also being flagged as a headwind. With electricity costs rising amid growing demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, Bitcoin mining profitability has deteriorated sharply.

According to HashRateIndex, hashprice—a measure of mining profitability—has recently fallen to around $30, down significantly from about $39 three months ago. Some publicly listed miners are also selling Bitcoin and adjusting their strategies toward high-performance computing businesses.

The market is increasingly viewing the $76,000 area as a key resistance level, as that is roughly the average purchase price for Strategy, a publicly listed company with a large Bitcoin holding.

Cointelegraph said, "If Bitcoin can break above this level sustainably, upside momentum could strengthen, but it may take more time to recover to around $78,700, the January monthly close."

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