[Analysis] "Altcoin market holds key support…potential for a major rally"

Suehyeon Lee

Summary

It reported that the altcoin market is holding key support and has the potential for a major rally.
It stated that, on a macro level, the Total3 market capitalization is showing a gradual recovery toward the 365-day moving average.
Unlike the past, it said that due to market structure changes and the introduction of ETFs, the next upswing is more likely to be selective and structural.

An analysis said the altcoin market is holding key support and is poised for a major rally.

On the 5th (local time), Cointelegraph reported that cryptocurrency trader and market analyst Michaël van de Poppe said, 'Total3 (Total3)', the market-capitalization indicator for all altcoins excluding Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), is holding a key support around about $784 billion, adding, 'this suggests that it has not transitioned into a structural decline despite short-term corrections, and is a signal that a major rally is ahead.'

Technically, pressure has eased somewhat. The Total3 market capitalization is gradually recovering toward the 365-day moving average, which is considered an important baseline in the medium- to long-term trend.

The altcoin market reached an all-time high of about $1.2 trillion last October but then suffered a sharp correction, tumbling about 33% in a single day due to a large market shock. As a result, investors have maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance over when the next 'alt season' will begin.

However, there is a prevailing view that 2025 has shown a different pattern from previous cycles. In the past, funds tended to flow into altcoins after Bitcoin's rise, but this year Bitcoin closed the year down despite the halving, leading analysts to say the so-called 'four-year cycle' theory has been fractured.

Changes in market structure have also been cited as a reason for the delay in an alt season. The number of listed tokens on CoinMarketCap has exceeded 29 million, and with the introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tying up funds into specific assets, liquidity has not been able to spread across the ecosystem. In such an environment, analysts say the next upswing in the altcoin market is likely to be more selective and structural than in the past.