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Goldman Sachs sees the Fed’s first rate cut pushed back…expects 25bp each in June and September
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Summary
- Goldman Sachs said it has pushed back the timing of the Fed’s first benchmark rate cut from March to June, forecasting 25bp cuts in June and September.
- Goldman Sachs cited slower disinflation and the resilient US economy as reasons for adjusting the timing of the cuts.
- Markets said the revision could affect the expected path of monetary policy, adjustments in risk-asset appetite, and short-term rate volatility.
A view has emerged that the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) benchmark rate cuts could be delayed from earlier expectations.
According to Walter Bloomberg on the 12th (local time), Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut its policy rate by 25bp (0.25%p) each in June and September this year. This scenario pushes back by one step from its previous call for cuts in March and June.
Goldman Sachs cited slower-than-expected disinflation and the resilient performance of the US economy as reasons for adjusting the timing. The firm said this makes it more likely that the Fed will maintain a more cautious approach to monetary easing.
Markets see the revised forecast as potentially influencing the expected path of future monetary policy. If the Fed’s first rate cut is delayed, some also predict that financial markets could see short-term rate volatility along with a shift in risk-asset appetite.
