TD Cowen cuts Strategy price target to $440… burden from aggressive bitcoin buying

Investment bank TD Cowen lowered its price target on Strategy from $500 to $440. The cut reflects a faster-than-expected pace of bitcoin purchases and the risk of dilution in per-share bitcoin value as the company ramps up share issuance.

According to a report by Cryptopolitan on the 15th (local time), Strategy is expected to add about 155,000 BTC in fiscal 2026, well above the prior estimate of 90,000 BTC. The company plans to fund the purchases through a combination of common and preferred stock issuance.

TD Cowen warned that increased share issuance could reduce the amount of bitcoin attributable per share. Strategy’s 2026 bitcoin yield (Bitcoin yield, the rate of increase in bitcoin per share) was estimated at 7.1%, down from the previous forecast of 8.8% and sharply lower than the 22.8% posted in 2025.

Strategy has not slowed its buying pace even amid a recent pullback in bitcoin prices. In the week ending Jan. 11, 2026, the company raised about $1.25 billion by issuing roughly 6.8 million common shares and about 1.2 million shares of its STRC preferred, using most of the proceeds to purchase 13,627 BTC.

TD Cowen said the deal had only a limited impact on improving bitcoin yield per share because the funding was raised at levels similar to the stock price. Still, it said the strategy could prove effective over the medium to long term if bitcoin prices rebound.

TD Cowen projected that bitcoin could rise to about $177,000 by December 2026 and about $226,000 by December 2027, and said bitcoin yield per share could improve again from 2027 onward.

Despite the lower near-term target, TD Cowen said Strategy remains attractive as an indirect way to gain exposure to bitcoin. It added that certain senior preferred shares, including STRF, could offer return potential of around 30%.

It also cited as a near-term positive MSCI’s recent decision not to remove bitcoin-holding companies such as Strategy from its indexes. However, TD Cowen added that uncertainty over index inclusion could resurface depending on shifts in interests among major asset managers going forward.