Bitcoin open interest down 30%…Rising expectations for a medium- to long-term rebound

As leverage is being rapidly unwound in the Bitcoin derivatives market, expectations are growing for the possibility of a medium- to long-term rebound. Analysts say that as excessive speculative positions are being cleared out, market structure is becoming more stable.

CryptoQuant said in a report on the 15th (local time) that Bitcoin derivatives open interest has fallen by about 31% from its peak last October. Open interest refers to the size of derivatives contracts that have not yet been closed out, and a decline indicates reduced leverage.

A CryptoQuant analyst at Darkfost described the move as “a typical deleveraging signal,” adding that “historically, sharp drops in open interest have often marked major market bottoms and then served as a foundation for rebounds.” In other words, the removal of excessive leverage has reduced the risk of cascading liquidations.

However, he added that if Bitcoin prices fall further and enter a clear bear market, open interest could decline further and the correction phase could be prolonged.

Indeed, overheating in the derivatives market was evident last year. According to CryptoQuant, as of Oct. 6, 2025, Bitcoin open interest topped $15 billion, hitting an all-time high. That is nearly three times the roughly $5.7 billion recorded on Binance at the peak of the 2021 bull market.

Another point drawing attention is that open interest has not been rising in tandem during the recent upswing in prices. This suggests the rally may be driven more by spot demand than leveraged buying. In fact, while Bitcoin prices are up about 10% so far this year, signs of overheating in the derivatives market remain limited.

According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin open interest across exchanges currently stands at about $65 billion, down about 28% from the early-October peak last year. In the options market, the $100,000 strike has the largest accumulation of open interest, suggesting that, over the medium to long term, demand betting on higher prices still appears dominant.

Still, Greeks Live said that “it is difficult to say the derivatives market has structurally entered a bull market,” adding that “the recent rise is closer to a reaction to the prior surge, and it is still too early to view it as a long-term trend reversal.”