US carrier redeployed; Iran briefly shuts airspace… Middle East on a hair trigger

Iran’s anti-government protests continue

Trump: “Stop executing protesters”

Signals military intervention is on hold for now

But does not fully rule out military action

Aircraft carrier moving toward the Middle East

Iran closes its airspace for about five hours

With anti-government protests in Iran entering a 18th day, tensions are rippling across the Middle East as Tehran maintains a heightened posture, including a brief closure of its airspace. The United States is weighing military intervention options in the Iran crisis. US President Donald Trump, who had cited the execution of protesters as a potential justification for intervention, appeared to step back after saying the executions had stopped—though he has not completely ruled out the possibility of military action.

US military intervention “on hold for now”

According to the Financial Times (FT) on the 14th (local time), Trump said regarding Iran’s crackdown on protests, “I heard the killing has stopped,” adding, “There is no plan for executions either.” He said the source of the information was “a very credible source,” and added, “I hope that’s true.”

Iran also said it had no plan to hang protesters. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a Fox interview, “Hanging is not on the table.”

The Trump administration appears to be pivoting toward putting military intervention on hold for now. That is because Trump had warned that the US could carry out military operations if Iran began hanging protesters. The US government requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. The Security Council meeting, focused on the Middle East situation, is scheduled to be held at UN headquarters at 3 p.m. on the 15th.

As of earlier that morning, speculation had grown that a US attack was imminent as the Trump administration intensified pressure on Iran. The day before, Trump urged Iranian protesters to take over institutions and confront the government more forcefully.

In particular, military tensions escalated after it became known that US forces were withdrawing some troops from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a key US military hub in the region. Citing sources, the Financial Times reported that “the US is pulling aircraft out of range in preparation for possible Iranian retaliation.”

Al Udeid, the largest US base in the Middle East, was the site of an Iranian missile attack last June after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. The UK also withdrew some personnel from the base and temporarily closed its embassy in Iran.

Concerns emerged that Iran was preparing for US military intervention by moving to control its own airspace, citing aerial missions. The airspace closure lasted about five hours starting at 1:45 a.m. on the 15th. Earlier, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, “If the US attacks Iran, all US bases in neighboring countries where American forces are stationed will become targets.”

Neighboring countries watching closely

Some interpret the situation as still too tense to relax, as the US has not fully ruled out military intervention options. Asked whether the military option against Iran was off the table, Trump said, “We’ll see how the process goes.” NBC, citing sources, reported that Trump instructed the White House national security team that if military operations against Iran are carried out, they should be “swift and decisive,” not a prolonged campaign.

According to NewsNation, the US is believed to be moving a carrier strike group deployed in the South China Sea to the US Central Command area of responsibility in the Middle East. Central Command oversees 21 countries including Iran, Egypt, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The redeploying carrier strike group is said to include the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. The move is expected to take about a week. At present, only six US Navy ships—three littoral combat ships and three destroyers—are deployed in the Middle East. The aircraft carrier Gerald Ford moved from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean in October last year, leaving the Middle East without a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

Other countries, including those in the Middle East and Europe, are also bracing for a potential military clash between Iran and the US. European countries such as Spain, Poland and Italy advised their citizens in Iran to leave. Germany issued guidance advising its airlines to avoid entering Iranian airspace.

Some countries in the Middle East are reportedly trying to persuade the US to resolve the Iran situation through diplomatic means. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported: “Gulf states believe their security could be threatened by rising tensions between the US and Iran,” adding that “Oman and Qatar advised the Trump administration to refrain from attacking Iran.”

As the Iran situation shifts rapidly, international oil prices have also been volatile. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for February delivery surged about 10% over four sessions to above $61 a barrel, but fell about 2% on the day to the $60 level. As of 2 a.m. on the 15th, it slipped to $59.9.

Reporter Myunghyun Han wise@hankyung.com