CPI comes in strong…Bitcoin holds $95,000; Ethereum breaks above $3,300 [Lee Soo-hyun’s Coin Radar]

<Lee Soo-hyun’s Coin Radar> is a weekly column that tracks trends in the digital asset (cryptocurrency) market and explains what is driving them. Going beyond a simple list of price moves, it offers a multidimensional analysis of global macro issues and investor behavior to provide insights into where the market may be headed.

Major coins

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin climbed steadily this week, briefly touching the $97,000 level on the 15th (local time). As of the 16th, it has been holding relatively firm around $95,000 on CoinMarketCap.

The immediate catalyst for the rebound was the US December Consumer Price Index (CPI). December CPI rose 2.7% year on year, matching market expectations, while core CPI came in at 2.6%, slightly below the forecast (2.7%). With inflation data not coming in worse than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields stabilized, and that backdrop supported risk assets broadly.

Rather than signaling that the Fed has suddenly gained room to cut rates right away, the solid inflation print can be seen as tamping down concerns about further tightening. Markets have largely priced in a hold at the January FOMC, with attention shifting to the possibility of cuts later in the second half of the year. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a January hold topped 97%, while the likelihood of at least a 25bp cut from June onward was also reflected at around 70%.

There was also an interpretation that former President Donald Trump’s public remarks influenced investor sentiment. Immediately after the CPI release, Trump said, “The inflation numbers are fantastic, and that means Powell should be cutting interest rates meaningfully,” ratcheting up pressure and continuing calls for Chair Jerome Powell to step down.

Signals that whale selling pressure has eased somewhat were also observed. According to CryptoQuant on the 15th, Binance whale Bitcoin deposits since early 2026 totaled about 15,800 BTC, sharply down from 37,000 BTC in December last year. Whales also accounted for about 20% of total inflows, historically around a mid-range level. With prices trading steadily in the $90,000s, whales likely had less incentive to offload quickly.

Policy uncertainty, however, remains. A markup vote on the US Senate Banking Committee’s digital asset market structure bill—dubbed the “CLARITY Act.”—originally slated for the 15th, was postponed. Industry pushback grew after a draft was released, and the decisive development was Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrawing support, saying there were “too many issues.” The committee abruptly delayed the markup, making a scheduling gap inevitable. Still, as major companies and groups are urging a resumption of review, the issue could return to the agenda later this month alongside the Agriculture Committee schedule.

Looking ahead, price action will depend on whether Bitcoin can secure $95,000 as a solid support level. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia, said, “If the $95,000 area is secured firmly, a renewed attempt at $100,000 is possible, and it could even open the way to the $106,000 area where the 200-day moving average sits.” Glassnode, meanwhile, pointed to around $98,300—the average cost basis for short-term holders—as a key resistance level. Depending on whether Bitcoin can establish itself above that level with volume, analysts say this rebound could either remain a technical recovery or develop into a more sustained uptrend.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum also had a solid week, extending a gradual uptrend and breaking above $3,300. As of the 16th, it is moving around $3,300 on CoinMarketCap.

While the same macro backdrop that lifted Bitcoin also helped, what stood out for Ethereum was simultaneous improvement across internal indicators. According to Santiment on the 14th, the number of new wallets created on the Ethereum network recently averaged 327,000 per day, an all-time high. Santiment said that after last December’s “Pusaka upgrade,” lower network fee burdens helped accelerate new user inflows. As gas fees fell, smaller users and new participants visibly flowed back into Ethereum.

Changes were also confirmed on the usage side. The volume of stablecoin transfers processed on the Ethereum network in Q4 last year hit a record high of about $8 trillion. This is interpreted as evidence that Ethereum continues to serve as core infrastructure in real-world use cases such as payments, remittances, and settlement.

Staking trends also underpinned the strength. According to digital-asset outlet The Block, staked Ethereum has now surpassed 36 million ETH, worth more than $118 billion. That means about 30% of circulating supply is not coming to market and is instead deposited in the network—a structure that could make investors less prone to sell.

The outlet noted that “Ethereum being up 11% year-to-date and rising more than 8% over the past week is not unrelated to the increase in staking,” adding that “institutional investors are leading this trend.” A representative case is BitMine, which reportedly holds about 4.17 million ETH and has staked more than 1.25 million of them.

Renewed activity in derivatives markets and a recovery in leverage demand also acted as a catalyst for this rebound. CryptoQuant said that as of the 14th, Ethereum open interest on Binance rose to about $8.6 billion, the highest level since October 9 last year. After open interest fell sharply following large liquidations in October, it had been stagnant for a long time, but has recently begun to rise again gradually. This differs from past overheating episodes when leverage piled up all at once, and may be interpreted as a return flow of participants rebuilding positions from low levels. In other words, rather than betting on short-term price swings, more participants may be returning to the market gradually with an eye on upside potential ahead.

On the outlook, medium- to long-term optimism is also emerging. Standard Chartered, in a January report, dubbed 2026 “the year of Ethereum” and set a year-end target of $7,500. In the near term, $3,350–$3,380 is cited as the key resistance zone. Digital-asset outlet NewsBTC said, “The area around $3,350 and $3,380 is major resistance,” adding that “a clear break above this zone could open the way to $3,400 and then $3,500 and even $3,650.” Conversely, if Ethereum fails to break above $3,400, $3,300 is the first support, and if $3,280 gives way, the possibility of a pullback toward the $3,200s is also being discussed.

3. XRP (XRP)

As the broader market rebounded this week, XRP was relatively quiet. While both Bitcoin and Ethereum rose more than 7% on a weekly basis, XRP gained only about 1% and continued to trade sideways around $2.10. As of the 16th, it is barely holding the $2.00 level on CoinMarketCap.

After one attempt to break above resistance at $2.20 was rejected, profit-taking reportedly emerged and pushed the token back into a range. FXStreet reported that as US core inflation came in lower than expected and sentiment improved, XRP rebounded to $2.19, but strong selling emerged around $2.20, triggering an immediate pullback.

On-chain indicators were also far from signaling overheating. According to CryptoQuant, XRP’s trading-volume Z-score on Binance was about 0.44, slightly above the 30-day average. That implies the market was not in a phase of explosive volume versus the average, making it possible to interpret the prolonged sideways move as a balance between buyers and sellers with neither side dominating.

Still, there is also positive talk on the demand side. According to SoSoValue data, spot XRP ETFs launched last November have seen cumulative net inflows of more than $1.2 billion, with inflows occurring almost every day except for a single session. Considering that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $2.4 billion over the same period, XRP ETF flows are being assessed as unusually resilient. The price may be stalled, but institutional demand is building.

There was also noteworthy regulatory-related news. According to CryptoAmerica host Eleanor Terrett, a draft US Senate digital asset market structure bill includes a provision that would treat tokens included as underlying assets of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded products (ETPs) listed on US securities exchanges as of January 1, 2026, as “non-ancillary assets.” If that clause remains, some altcoins—including XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Chainlink (LINK)—could be interpreted as receiving regulatory treatment comparable to Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, as the content may change during Senate Banking Committee review and revisions, the market appears to be balancing expectations with caution.

In terms of price outlook, both a short-term pullback and the possibility of further gains are being cited. Digital-asset analyst Credible Crypto said, “Resistance has been confirmed three times in the upper range. Depending on the case, a correction to $1.77 could occur,” while adding, “If support near $2 holds, a medium-term re-test of the $3 range is also possible.” Digital-asset outlet Cointelegraph likewise said holding $2 support is key to determining the next direction, noting that “XRP’s daily chart broke upward from a falling wedge pattern on the 1st,” and projecting that “if $2 support holds, further upside to $2.4 and $2.7 is possible.”

Issue coin

1. Story (IP)

One of the strongest movers featured in Coin Radar this week was Story. It surged 100% over three days earlier this week, at one point topping $4. After a pullback, it is still trading around $2.50, up nearly 26% on the week on CoinMarketCap.

Story Protocol is a Layer 1 blockchain designed to handle the registration, licensing, and revenue distribution of intellectual property (IP) on-chain. It is being discussed as a candidate for core infrastructure in the AI era, as creative works and AI training data can be managed as smart-contract-based assets.

The Story token is the network’s native token used for paying fees and for staking. The rally this week has been attributed to another wave of demand for AI-themed assets. After strength in AI-related coins such as Render (RENDER) and Virtual Protocol (VIRTUAL), signs emerged that related demand shifted toward Story. Expectations also built ahead of a mainnet update on the 14th, and in the process, short-term buying appears to have concentrated as deposit/withdrawal restrictions at exchanges such as Upbit and Bithumb overlapped. There were also supply-demand catalysts: the Story Foundation said it would extend its token buyback program through February 2026 and expand the purchase amount to $100 million, which also helped push prices higher.

Technically, many assessments say bullish signals remain in place, but after such a sharp short-term surge, the possibility of higher near-term volatility is also being discussed. As such, whether it can secure $2.57 or higher in a stable manner appears likely to be a key point for trend continuation.

Lee Soo-hyun, Bloomingbit reporter shlee@bloomingbit.io