CZ: “Institutions are in, but retail hasn’t fully returned yet… ‘supercycle’ still possible”

Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, said of the current digital-asset (crypto) market that “inflows of institutional money are now clearly in place, but a full-fledged return of retail investors is not yet here.” On the outlook for 2026, he left open the possibility of a “supercycle,” even amid choppy conditions in which a traditional downturn phase could collide with US government stimulus.

Speaking on Binance’s YouTube channel on the 15th (local time), CZ said, “The biggest change over the past year has unquestionably been institutional adoption,” adding that “especially US institutions are now deploying capital in earnest via spot Bitcoin ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT), among others.” He noted, “There were also reports that JPMorgan recently advised clients to allocate 1–4% of their assets to digital assets,” and assessed it as a “symbolic shift” that even financial institutions that had previously criticized Bitcoin publicly have changed their stance.

By contrast, he struck a cautious tone on retail flows. “Retail participation is still active, but in this cycle we haven’t yet seen expansion in scale comparable to institutions,” he said, adding that “it’s hard to be certain how much retail money will flow back in going forward.”

He continued, “This bull run largely played out back in January and has been holding around that level,” and said, “People expected a bigger rally, but the fact that there are complaints even with Bitcoin sitting at $90,000 reflects that expectations have become excessively high.” He added, “Considering that Bitcoin was around $50,000–$60,000 just a year ago, it’s still been a good year.”

On this year’s outlook, he emphasized uncertainty. “Historically, the digital-asset market has shown a four-year cycle,” CZ said, adding that “from that perspective, 2026 could be a consolidation phase or the start of a bear market.” Still, he argued that “the US policy environment is different from the past,” and analyzed that “the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, rate cuts, quantitative easing, and discussions about replacing the Fed chair could create conditions favorable for equities.”

He went on to say, “President Trump is someone who places importance on the stock market as a performance metric,” explaining that “when equities are strong, excess liquidity increases, which typically also supports the digital-asset market.” .

CZ concluded, “We can’t completely rule out the possibility of a supercycle emerging in 2026,” adding, “It’s harder than ever to predict right now, but I remain quite optimistic about America’s capacity to lead the global economy and financial innovation.”