[Analysis] "New investors have been in unrealized losses since November 2025…$98,000 recovery is the inflection point"
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Summary
- Glassnode said, via the STH-NUPL metric, that new Bitcoin investors have been in net unrealized losses since November 2025.
- At current price levels, new investors overall are on average in loss territory, a setup that could turn a short-term rebound into selling pressure.
- It assessed that Bitcoin needs to recover to around $98,000 or higher to move new investors back into net unrealized profit—serving as a psychological and structural inflection point.
An on-chain analysis finds that new Bitcoin (BTC) investors have remained in loss territory since late last year.
On the 20th (local time), Glassnode said via its STH-NUPL (Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) metric that “new investors have continued to sit in net unrealized losses since November 2025.” STH-NUPL measures short-term holders’ (STH) unrealized gains and losses relative to market capitalization, indicating the profit-and-loss status of recently arrived investors.
At current price levels, new investors overall are, on average, in the red. This implies short-term holders’ average cost basis is above the current spot price, creating a setup where even a short-term bounce could translate into selling pressure.
Glassnode suggested that Bitcoin would need to recover to around $98,000 or higher for the cohort of new investors to flip back into net unrealized profit. The firm assessed that this level could act as a psychological and structural inflection point, beyond a simple technical resistance line.
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