"Bitcoin seen with a 30% chance of falling below $80,000 by June this year…options market highlights downside risk"

In the Bitcoin (BTC) options market, a trend is emerging of bracing for a medium-term downside. An analysis says that in the decentralized derivatives market, pricing implies roughly a 30% probability that Bitcoin will drop below $80,000 by the end of June.

According to crypto-focused media outlet CoinDesk on the 20th, data from on-chain options and derivatives platform Derive.xyz show that markets are pricing in about a 30% chance that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 by the end of June. Over the same period, the probability of rising above $120,000 is about 19%, suggesting downside risk is being assessed as relatively larger.

Bitcoin slipped below the $91,000 level on the day amid the fallout from President Trump’s remarks on additional tariffs. In the options market, a pronounced “downside skew” is evident, with put demand outweighing calls. In particular, open interest (OI) is concentrated in the $75,000–$80,000 strike range, pointing to growing hedging demand against the risk of a medium-term pullback.

Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, said, “The options market is assigning a 30% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 as of June 26,” adding that “this is higher than the probability of breaking above $120,000 over the same period.” He added that “geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe—especially disputes surrounding Greenland—could amplify volatility.”

In fact, President Trump recently signaled additional tariffs targeting European countries opposing his plans related to Greenland, after which risk-off sentiment resurfaced across global financial markets. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin retreated from the $95,000 level to the $91,000 range.

Skew indicators, which reflect distortions in options pricing, also remain in negative territory. This implies strong near-term demand for downside protection. Similar positioning is being observed not only on Derive but also in centralized derivatives venues such as Deribit.

Meanwhile, open interest refers to the number of derivatives contracts for positions that traders have not closed out. Generally, the higher the open interest, the greater the likelihood that coin price volatility will increase.

Skew also refers to the difference between implied volatilities of call and put options. A positive skew indicates calls are favored over puts, while a neutral or near-zero skew suggests demand for bullish and bearish bets is balanced.