XRP shows signs of repeating its February 2022 selloff pattern…pressure mounting on short-term buyers
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Summary
- On-chain indicators suggest XRP’s holder composition is showing a selloff pattern similar to February 2022.
- While new buyers over the past one week to one month are in profit, medium- and long-term holders (six to 12 months) remain at a loss, and if upside is limited, selling pressure could intensify.
- Large realized losses have repeatedly occurred around $2, indicating the level is being used as an exit for existing holders rather than a fresh-buying zone—adding to pressure on short-term buyers.
On-chain indicators for XRP are showing a pattern similar to the period just before a past downswing, intensifying selling pressure across the market.
According to CoinDesk on the 21st, on-chain data analytics firm Glassnode said XRP’s holder composition has recently been exhibiting a selloff pattern resembling February 2022. New buyers who entered over the past one week to one month are in profit territory, while many holders with a six- to 12-month holding period remain underwater.
Glassnode said this structure could amplify selling pressure if upside is capped, as profit-taking by short-term buyers and supply from medium- and long-term holders waiting for a rebound could hit the market at the same time.
Indeed, XRP’s current on-chain data resembles early 2022. At the time, after trading around $0.78, XRP extended its decline for several months, sliding to about $0.30 by mid-year.
Glassnode explained that investors active within the past one week to one month have been accumulating XRP at price levels below the average cost basis of holders who bought six to 12 months ago. As a result, new buyers are sitting on gains, while medium- and long-term holders remain in loss and continue to wait for a rebound.
This cost-basis gap could increasingly weigh on the market over time. If prices fail to rise further, profit-taking by short-term holders and selling by underwater holders could occur simultaneously.
XRP is currently facing repeated resistance around the $2 level. According to Glassnode data, each retest of $2 since mid-2025 has generated realized losses of roughly $500 million to $1.2 billion per week. This suggests the level is being used not as a zone for fresh buying but as an exit for existing holders.
As a result, $2 has become a key psychological level for the XRP market. If the price remains below this threshold, the burden on buyers who entered near the top increases, while short-term investors have continued to accumulate at relatively lower levels.
Still, it cannot be concluded that this selloff pattern will necessarily lead to the kind of sharp drop seen in 2022. However, if the divergence in cost bases persists for an extended period, short-term buyers could also gradually come under pressure—an overhang for the market.
