Editor's PiCK
"Bitcoin holders turn to net losses for the first time since October 2023…entering a loss-realization phase"
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Summary
- CryptoQuant said Bitcoin (BTC) holders have realized net losses for the first time since October 2023, shifting into a loss-realization phase.
- CryptoQuant said realized profit momentum has weakened and realized profit peaks have continued to fall since March 2024, which may signal the late stage of the bull market.
- CryptoQuant said the drop in net realized profit and the expansion of net realized losses suggest weakening Bitcoin price strength and point to the potential for a 2022-style bear market to unfold.
Bitcoin (BTC) holders have reportedly realized net losses for the first time in about a year. Analysts say the long-running on-chain profit phase has ended, with signs of a shift in market dynamics.
According to The Block on the 23rd (local time), on-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant said in a recent report that Bitcoin holders have begun realizing net losses for the first time since October 2023. CryptoQuant explained that “over the past 30 days, a regime shift has emerged, moving from a profit-taking phase to a loss-realization phase.”
CryptoQuant said realized profit momentum has gradually weakened since early 2024. As realized profit peaks declined through January and December 2024 and July and October 2025, the firm noted this suggests price strength is weakening even as spot prices remain near their highs.
Since December 23 last year, the cumulative realized losses by Bitcoin holders have totaled as much as about 69,000 BTC. CryptoQuant said realized profit peaks have been steadily falling since March 2024, which could be a signal that the bull market is entering its final stage.
Regarding how realized P&L is calculated, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said, “When Bitcoin is transferred, we calculate profit or loss by comparing the price at the previous transfer with the current transfer price,” adding, “All transfers are verifiable on-chain, and price data are sourced from exchanges.”
CryptoQuant said the current on-chain flows resemble the late-stage bull-market wind-down that played out from 2021 into 2022. At that time, realized profits peaked in January 2021 and then gradually declined before shifting into a net-loss zone, followed by the onset of a full-fledged bear market, the firm said.
On an annual basis, net realized profit is also falling again. Net realized profit currently stands at about 2.5 million BTC, down sharply from about 4.4 million BTC in October last year and marking the lowest level since March 2024. Net realized losses were shown to be tracking a pattern similar to March 2022.
CryptoQuant said that “the decline in net realized profit indicates weakening Bitcoin price strength.” Previously, CryptoQuant has repeatedly warned of the possibility of entering a bear market, characterizing the recent rebound in Bitcoin prices as a “bear-market rally” rather than a sustained recovery.
