"Bitcoin-to-silver ratio nears levels seen during the FTX collapse… is silver facing mounting resistance at the top?"

Minseung Kang

Summary

The report said the bitcoin-to-silver ratio has fallen to around 780—near levels seen during the FTX collapse—heightening caution over whether the silver market is overheating.
The report said silver prices have surged about 300% over the past year, while volatility has intensified, with an intraday 15% jump followed by a 15% drop occurring in the same session.
The report said historically silver price peaks have been concentrated in the first half of the year and often followed a pattern of a sharp run-up and rising volatility, suggesting the current move could indicate a potential cycle peak.

As the ratio of silver prices to Bitcoin (BTC) approaches past extreme levels, caution is growing over whether the silver market is overheating. With rising volatility converging with historical patterns, some analysts say investors should assess the possibility of a short-term peak.

According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet CoinDesk on the 27th, the bitcoin-to-silver ratio has fallen to around 780. This is close to the roughly 700 level recorded when Bitcoin slid to around $15,500 in November 2022 in the aftermath of the FTX collapse. The ratio is also lower than when Bitcoin reached $20,000 in 2017.

CoinDesk said the move may suggest silver has entered a relatively vulnerable phase versus Bitcoin. Traditionally, in the late stages of a bull market, attempts increase to identify peak signals using relative-value indicators across assets, and the silver market may now be in such a phase, it said.

Silver prices have surged about 300% over the past year. However, volatility has expanded sharply. Silver recently jumped about 15% intraday to around $117 per ounce, then fell nearly 15% the same day, sliding back to around $112.

Historically, localized peaks in silver prices have tended to cluster at the start of the year or in the first half. Most major peak examples formed in the first half, including February 1974, January 1980 ($47), February 1983, May 1987, February 1998, April 2004, May 2006, March 2008, and April 2011 ($50). In particular, 1980 and 2011 are classified as periods when prices spiked in a short time and then formed peaks as volatility increased.

"This historical pattern sends a potential warning signal for the recent trajectory of silver prices," the outlet said, adding, "If history is repeating itself, silver may have reached a cycle peak."

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