Coinbase Ventures: “The traditional four-year crypto cycle is weakening…capital is shifting to stablecoins and DeFi”

An analysis suggests that the crypto market’s traditional four-year cycle is weakening as institutional inflows and changes in market structure take hold. The investment landscape is also shifting toward prioritizing long-term fundamentals over short-term themes.

According to crypto-focused media outlet Coinpedia on the 27th, Huli Tezwani, head of Coinbase Ventures, said in a recent Milk Road interview, “I question whether a four-year crypto cycle still exists,” adding that “the market structure itself is changing.” He explained that since the launch of spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, long-term capital such as pension accounts has flowed in, altering the nature of investing.

Tezwani said, “Bitcoin is no longer an asset held to take profits within 18 months; it’s being added to portfolios with the assumption of holding for decades.” He also pointed out that liquidity in the spot market is being fragmented by the launch of more than 10,000 new assets, the rise of prediction markets, and the expansion of perpetual futures trading.

In this environment, he characterized the market as a “token-picking market.” Tezwani said, “Going forward, projects with real revenue, a user base, and a clear value-capture structure will stand out,” adding, “We’re not looking for people chasing short-term gains; we’re looking for founders with a 5–10 year vision.”

Areas Coinbase Ventures is focusing on include stablecoin infrastructure, perpetual futures and real-world asset tokenization, decentralized finance (DeFi), privacy, and the convergence of crypto and artificial intelligence (AI). Tezwani assessed stablecoin infrastructure as having “100x growth potential.”

On AI, he drew a line by saying, “Agent tokens that trade automatically have limited real value,” adding that “the opportunities are in payment rails, identity systems for agents, and decentralized AI training infrastructure.”