Bitcoin’s rebound likely capped until liquidity recovers… “Hard to shift into an uptrend”

According to Cointelegraph on the 29th (local time), Bitcoin avoided further declines after holding support in the $80,700–$83,400 range. Futures market data suggest liquidity could be absorbed in the near term up to around $93,500.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said a recovery in market liquidity needs to come first for a more meaningful trend reversal. Glassnode noted that a sustained uptrend would require the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio to remain above a certain level.

The metric is drawing attention because in recent years, during mid-term rebound phases, it has consistently held firmly above 5 before a full-fledged influx of liquidity and capital rotation emerged. It currently sits around 2, below that threshold.

The market’s supply structure is also cited as an overhang. About 22% of circulating Bitcoin is estimated to be in loss territory, a level similar to the correction phases in Q1 2022 and Q2 2018. Analysts say it is hard to rule out the possibility that if key support breaks, additional selling pressure could intensify.

Still, near-term selling pressure itself appears limited. According to CryptoQuant, the monthly amount of Bitcoin flowing into Binance averages about 5,700 BTC, less than half the long-term average of roughly 12,000 BTC. That is the lowest level since 2020.

Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant, said: “Bitcoin inflows remaining at historically low levels suggest investors are choosing to hold rather than sell,” adding, “While the risk of a short-term pullback is low, improvements in liquidity indicators are needed for a full shift into an uptrend.”