Bernstein: “Bitcoin could bottom around $60,000… recovery expected in the first half”

As Bitcoin (BTC) prices remain in a corrective phase, the market is seeing analysis that the current decline may amount to a temporary pullback rather than a shift into a medium- to long-term bearish trend.

According to FXStreet, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) investment platform, on the 3rd global asset manager Bernstein said in a recent report that Bitcoin may form a bottom around the $60,000 level and then enter a recovery phase during the first half of the year.

Bernstein said the recent weakness in the digital-asset market has coincided with gold’s relative strength. Analysts noted that “over the past year, gold has significantly outperformed Bitcoin,” adding that “expanded gold purchases by central banks reinforced this trend.” As a result, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is approaching its lowest level versus gold in two years, the report said.

However, Bernstein viewed the current weakness as a short-term correction rather than a structural decline. Analysts said, “This correction is closer to a temporary retracement within an upcycle than the start of a prolonged bear market.” In particular, citing that cumulative institutional inflows via spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have exceeded $165 billion, they said “institutional capital has significantly increased downside rigidity in the Bitcoin market.”

The firm also said miner behavior is showing a different pattern than in the past. Bernstein noted, “Miner-led capitulation selling, which repeatedly appeared in previous downturns, is not being observed in this cycle.” It added, “As mining companies diversify revenue sources into areas such as artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, their dependence on Bitcoin price volatility has declined.”

The U.S. policy environment was also cited as a potential catalyst for a rebound. Bernstein said, “The U.S. government’s move to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve using seized Bitcoin is a symbolic change,” adding that “if broader political alignment with the digital-asset industry strengthens, Bitcoin could be perceived as a quasi-sovereign asset or a reserve asset.” It also said, “With digital-asset markets continuing to fall, it is unlikely the U.S. government will remain passive.”

Meanwhile, this outlook is additional analysis following Bernstein’s view last month that Bitcoin’s downside floor was around $80,000. As of 15:23 on the day, Bitcoin was trading around $78,000, showing a short-term rebound trend.