"Bitcoin’s Next Bull Market May Not Follow the 'Rate-Cut Playbook'"

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC)’s next bull market may not be driven by accommodative monetary policy such as interest-rate cuts.

According to Cointelegraph, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, ProCap Financial Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Jeff Park said in a recent interview that “the assumption that accommodative monetary policy is necessarily the catalyst for a Bitcoin bull market may not hold,” adding that “a phase in which Bitcoin’s price rises even in a rising-rate environment is the ultimate stage for Bitcoin.”

Park described a phase in which Bitcoin rallies despite rate hikes as the “endgame.” He said this would imply a situation where the concept of the risk-free rate long used in traditional financial markets, and the dollar-centric monetary order, no longer function as absolute benchmarks.

He continued, “In that environment, the risk-free rate itself is no longer risk-free,” and added, “dollar hegemony and the yield curve can no longer be priced in the way we used to understand.”

Park also pointed to a lack of policy coordination between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury compared with the past. He said, “The current monetary system is structurally fractured, and we are at a point where it is difficult to explain the direction of asset prices with interest-rate policy alone.”

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has traditionally been viewed as an asset that benefits in periods of rate cuts and expanding liquidity. His remarks are drawing attention in that they lay out conditions under which Bitcoin could move beyond being a risk asset dependent on the macro environment and transition into an independent store of value.