Japan’s general election D-1: LDP maintains lead… wild card is ‘midwinter turnout’

With Japan’s general election just a day away, there is growing speculation that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will keep its edge through the final stretch. Still, because the vote will be held in midwinter, attention is focused on how the weather could affect turnout.

On Feb. 7, the Sankei Shimbun reported that in a telephone poll conducted with Fuji News Network (FNN) on Feb. 5 of 1,029 respondents, support for the LDP in the proportional-representation ballot held steady in the high-30% range. The paper said the main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (Centrist Reform Party) stayed in the low-20% range, showing little change from Jan. 27, when the official campaign period began.

In a separate question asking which candidate respondents would vote for in their single-member district, the LDP again ranked first at just under 50%, while the Centrist Reform Party remained in the mid-20% range.

Earlier, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported the previous day that after checking late-stage race dynamics based on a telephone-and-internet survey of 356,000 people conducted Feb. 3–5, the LDP could not only clear a single-party majority (233 seats) in the House of Representatives (lower house) but also come within reach of an “absolute stable majority” (261 seats).

This general election was triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s surprise decision to dissolve the House of Representatives early. The period from dissolution to the election is 16 days, the shortest since the end of the Pacific War.

Observers say that from the early phase of the campaign the LDP sought to consolidate conservative voters by putting Prime Minister Takaichi front and center, while the Centrist Reform Party struggled due to a lack of preparation time—announcing its party name just a little over 10 days before the candidate registration deadline. The Centrist Reform Party was launched as an alliance between the Constitutional Democratic Party, the former No. 1 opposition, and Komeito, previously the third-largest opposition party, ahead of the election.

Turnout is being cited as a key variable. A senior LDP figure said, “If turnout is low in this general election, the organizational vote of Komeito could have a large impact.”

The fact that the general election is unusually being held in February is also seen as a factor that could affect turnout. A February general election is the first in 36 years since 1990.

The Japan Meteorological Agency forecast that on Election Day, Feb. 8, an inflow of cold air over the Japanese archipelago will bring heavy snow mainly to Kyoto Prefecture, Hyogo Prefecture, Tottori Prefecture, Shimane Prefecture and other areas. It also said there could be places in Tokyo where snow accumulates. The Asahi Shimbun reported, “Each party is paying close attention to turnout ahead of voting and ballot counting.”

Prime Minister Takaichi, too, urged participation the previous day at a campaign event in Kagoshima Prefecture, saying, “The weather looks like it may turn rough ahead of the weekend,” and asking voters to “stop by an early voting site.”

Yonghyun Shin, Hankyung.com reporter yonghyun@hankyung.com