Bernstein: “Bitcoin is the weakest bear market in history” … Reaffirms $150,000 target for end-2026

Global investment bank Bernstein recently assessed Bitcoin’s (BTC) correction phase as “the weakest bear market in history,” reaffirming a price target of $150,000 for the end of 2026.

According to crypto (cryptocurrency) outlet The Block on the 9th, Bernstein analysts said in a report that “the current Bitcoin decline is closer to a crisis of confidence than structural impairment,” adding that “unlike past bear markets, no triggering factors such as system collapse, hidden leverage, or cascading bankruptcies have been identified.”

Bernstein said, “What we are seeing is the weakest bear-market scenario in Bitcoin’s history,” and added that “this kind of correction does not undermine the long-term adoption trajectory or the investment thesis.” It maintained its end-2026 Bitcoin price target at $150,000.

The report said this cycle is clearly different from the past. It cited the combined effects of a pro-Bitcoin stance in the U.S., the spread of spot Bitcoin ETF infrastructure, expanded inclusion of Bitcoin in corporate treasury strategies, and continued participation by large asset managers.

Analysts noted, “Nothing has collapsed, and no hidden problems have surfaced,” but pointed out that “the market is nonetheless manufacturing a crisis of confidence on its own.” They added that “as the world shifts to AI, narratives keep recurring that Bitcoin and crypto are no longer interesting.”

On criticism that Bitcoin has recently underperformed relative to gold, Bernstein emphasized that it is still trading as a liquidity-sensitive asset rather than a safe haven. Bernstein explained that “tight financial conditions and high interest rates are concentrating returns in gold and some AI-related stocks,” while “Bitcoin, if liquidity conditions improve, already has ETF and corporate financing channels in place to absorb inflows.”

It also pushed back against skepticism about Bitcoin’s role in the AI era. Bernstein said, “In an environment where autonomous software agents operate, a global, machine-readable financial infrastructure is necessary,” and assessed that “blockchains and programmable wallets are structurally advantaged over closed banking systems.”

On quantum-computing risk, it drew a line, saying, “This is not a Bitcoin-only issue.” The report said, “All critical digital systems face the same challenge, and the transition to quantum-resistant standards will occur simultaneously,” adding that “Bitcoin’s code is open, and well-capitalized stakeholders are involved, leaving ample capacity to adapt.”

It also viewed concerns about corporate treasury Bitcoin holdings and miners as overblown. Bernstein analyzed that “major holding companies have designed their debt structures to withstand prolonged downturns,” and that “miners are also diversifying the use of their power assets amid AI data-center demand.”

Bernstein concluded that “the risk of forced selling has fallen significantly compared with the past,” and that “this correction does not impair Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.”