"Bitcoin faces a test at $60,000…options overhang and macro factors converge"

Whether Bitcoin (BTC) can hold the $60,000 level has emerged as a key variable that could determine the near-term trend. Some analyses warn that if this zone breaks, large-scale liquidations and a concentration of liquidity could follow.

According to AMBCrypto, a digital-asset (cryptocurrency) media outlet, analysts are pointing to $60,000 as a critical price level that Bitcoin must defend. They explain that this area has a heavy concentration of large loan positions and liquidity, raising the likelihood that a downside break could trigger cascading liquidations.

From a technical perspective, $60,000 is also seen as overlapping with Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. Past cases suggest that when Bitcoin trades above this trend line it tends to maintain a medium- to long-term uptrend, whereas a breakdown has previously coincided with a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment.

Downside bets are also becoming more pronounced in the derivatives market. Deribit data show that put options concentrated below $60,000 amount to about $1.24 billion. If the price falls below that level, the next major cluster of put options is assessed to be around $50,000.

Options volatility has also risen. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin options open interest stands at 452,000 BTC, close to the peak levels seen at the end of the fourth quarter last year. This represents a 77% increase from the prior 255,000 BTC, indicating that market participants’ positioning has expanded significantly.

The market currently estimates the probability that Bitcoin will remain above $60,000 at around 15%. Conversely, it implies that 85% of participants are placing greater weight on the risk of a downside break. Given on-chain indicators and the macro backdrop, the downside pressure is seen as substantial.

Macro factors are also a headwind. Uncertainty has grown as the U.S. Supreme Court signaled it will issue a ruling on the 20th regarding a Trump-related tariff matter. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, additional pressure could be applied to the crypto market.

Market sentiment also remains tilted to the bearish side. The assessment is that conditions are fragile enough that even small price moves could trigger capitulation selling.