This Week’s Focus: Fed Minutes and PCE Data… US Supreme Court Ruling on Trump Tariffs Also a Wild Card

Global financial markets are on alert this week for key macro indicators and legal developments. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and a US Supreme Court ruling related to President Donald Trump’s tariffs are seen as the main variables.

According to BlockBeats, a US media outlet specializing in virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), the US central bank—the Federal Reserve (Fed)—will release the minutes of its January monetary policy meeting at 3:00 a.m. Korea time on the 20th. Markets are watching for additional clues on the path of rate cuts this year.

Then, at 9:30 p.m. on the 21st, the advance estimate of US fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and the core PCE price index will be released.

PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and there is speculation that an upside surprise could affect the pace of monetary easing within the year.

Remarks from major central bank officials are also scheduled this week. Fed officials are likewise expected to make a series of public comments.

In asset markets, gold and oil moved in opposite directions. Spot gold has continued to fluctuate near recent highs, while international crude prices pulled back after a sharp rise. The move in oil is interpreted as having been influenced by expectations that OPEC+ could resume production increases starting in April.

The direction of the dollar is also a variable. If the dollar does not weaken further, it could maintain relative strength amid uncertainty ahead of the tariff ruling. At the same time, some analysts say that rising demand for US Treasuries could broaden portfolio reallocation moves.

The political and legal calendar is also in focus. The US Supreme Court is set to issue an opinion on the 20th in a case related to President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff policy. Depending on the outcome, the trajectory of those tariff measures could be affected, with potential spillovers to global trade and market sentiment.

Meanwhile, earnings season is entering its final stretch. Walmart is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter results this week. Investors will be watching whether guidance on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption and tariffs could influence sentiment across the retail sector and the broader market.