"Bitcoin bear market could last until October this year"

Bitcoin (BTC) entered a full-fledged bearish phase after peaking last October, and some analysts say the downturn cycle could extend through October 2026.

According to CoinDo, a cryptocurrency-focused outlet, market analyst Colin Talks Crypto assessed that Bitcoin likely passed its cycle peak after rising to the $124,000–$126,000 range in early October last year. He said, "The early-October high may not have been the start of a new bull market, but a turning point in the cycle."

As of late last month, Colin estimated the current correction had progressed about 32–35% of a typical one-year down cycle. He added, "This correction may not be in its early stages—it may already be well advanced," and explained that "if past patterns repeat, the downtrend is not over yet."

Technical indicators are also seen as supporting a bearish setup. Bitcoin is trading below both the 21-week moving average and the 200-day exponential moving average. He noted, "Trading below these two indicators typically signals a prolonged correction phase."

As for downside levels, a broad base-building range of $32,000–$60,000 was suggested, with $49,000 highlighted as a key support candidate. He said, "$49,000 is a structural support level where long-term buying interest could emerge."

The macro backdrop was also cited as a headwind. After the Oct. 10 announcement last year of 100% tariffs on imports from China, global financial markets swung sharply, and roughly $19 billion was liquidated in a single day, spreading shockwaves across risk assets, the report said.

Institutional flows were also assessed to have slowed. Since hitting an all-time high, Bitcoin has seen net outflows of more than $1.3 billion from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). He said, "Risk appetite among large investors has clearly cooled."

Meanwhile, if the past one-year down cycle repeats, some expect the ultimate bottom could form around October 2026. Still, analysts say further confirmation is needed on whether price action over the coming months will track prior cycles.