Summary
- Keyrock said US Treasury bill (T-bill) issuance and Bitcoin (BTC) prices have shown about an 80% correlation since 2021.
- It reported that a 1% change in global liquidity corresponds to an average 7.6% move in BTC prices in the following quarter, and that shifts in US T-bill issuance lead BTC prices by about eight months.
- Keyrock noted that US Treasury issuance could continue at roughly $600 billion to $800 billion a year through 2028, and said this could have a positive impact on BTC prices from late this year through early 2027.
An analysis suggests that the liquidity indicator with the greatest influence on Bitcoin (BTC) prices is the volume of US Treasury bill (T-bill) issuance.
According to Cointelegraph, a US digital-asset (cryptocurrency) news outlet, crypto market maker Keyrock said in a report that since 2021, US T-bill issuance and BTC prices have shown a strong correlation of about 80%.
It also found that changes in T-bill issuance tend to lead BTC prices by about eight months, and that when global liquidity moves by 1%, BTC prices move an average of 7.6% in the following quarter.
The report also noted that a significant portion of the current US national debt (about $38 trillion) will mature within the next four years. To refinance debt raised during the era of ultra-low rates, the US would need to issue Treasuries again in a higher-rate environment, and it projected that annual Treasury issuance of roughly $600 billion to $800 billion could continue through 2028.
Keyrock said that, given these liquidity flows, BTC prices could see a positive impact from late this year through early 2027.
JH Kim
reporter1@bloomingbit.ioHi, I'm a Bloomingbit reporter, bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news.
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