U.S. to launch pre-emptive strike on key Iranian facilities? Trump mulls ‘bloody nose’ operation

Trump: “Two weeks at most”…final ultimatum to Iran for talks

Airstrikes within days if Trump approves

All-out war if it won’t abandon nukes

Could move to topple the Khamenei regime

Oil at $71, ‘highest’ in six months

Speculation is growing that the United States may attack Iran soon, after U.S. President Donald Trump effectively issued a final ultimatum by giving Tehran a deadline of up to two weeks. As signs emerged that a U.S. strike on Iran could be imminent, tensions across the Middle East intensified and global oil prices extended their surge.

◇ U.S. weighs ‘bloody nose’ strike

On the 19th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing multiple sources, reported that the Trump administration is considering a limited attack—known as a so-called “bloody nose strike”—to secure a nuclear deal with Iran. The approach resembles the small-scale pre-emptive strike that was reviewed during Trump’s first term as a way to push for the dismantlement of North Korea’s nuclear program.

A source told the WSJ, “The operation would target some Iranian military and government facilities, and if the president approves, it could be carried out within days.” If Iran still refuses to abandon its nuclear program after a limited air campaign, the operation could be expanded into a large-scale attack. In that case, the U.S. could move to topple the regime of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei through a broad all-out war, the WSJ noted. One source said the U.S. military could ratchet up the intensity of attacks until Iran dismantles its nuclear facilities or the regime collapses.

The U.S. government assesses that it would take about one week to move to an all-out war aimed at regime change in Iran. The Financial Times (FT) noted, “The U.S. military buildup in the Middle East is sufficient to sustain weeks of airstrikes,” adding that it “evokes the U.S. military’s movements ahead of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.” According to flight-tracking site Flightradar24, 39 aerial refueling tankers have been redeployed to potential conflict zones over the past three days. A total of 12 vessels—including one aircraft carrier, eight destroyers, and three littoral combat ships—are deployed in the Middle East. The aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford and three destroyers are also en route to the region.

Some advisers, however, are said to be concerned that such an attack could spur Iranian retaliation, as the risk is high that war could spread across the Middle East. Trump has presented Iran with a 10–15 day deadline to give up its nuclear ambitions.

◇ “Iran may bet on war over talks”

Some analysts say Iran’s leadership could choose to gamble on war rather than negotiations with the U.S., judging that war may be preferable to dialogue to keep the regime in power. Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and an Iran expert, wrote in an FT op-ed, “They (Iran) see negotiations not as a solution but as a trap, and believe fighting an unavoidable war is better than entering a bad deal.” He also argued that “Iran is preparing for armed confrontation rather than dialogue because of its long-standing distrust of President Trump.”

According to Nasr, Iranian authorities believe that accepting U.S. demands would make regime collapse more likely. If war drags on, he said, Tehran believes it can stoke anti-American sentiment, strengthen nationalism, and secure public support. “A cornered regime is willing to take risks,” he wrote, adding that “a protracted conflict could force the U.S. to abandon further attacks and improve Iran’s leverage in negotiations with Washington.”

A growing number of forecasts suggest it will not be easy for the U.S. and Iran to resolve the situation through diplomacy. The two sides remain deadlocked over uranium enrichment. Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran must permanently dismantle its enrichment capability, but Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei maintains that permanent dismantlement is absolutely unacceptable.

The Trump administration also wants talks to cover limits on Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and an end to its support for proxy forces in the Middle East. Iran, however, insists discussions should focus only on the nuclear program.

◇ Oil hits highest in six months

Oil prices climbed on the day as geopolitical anxiety spread. On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent crude for April delivery settled up 1.9% at $71.66 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for March delivery also rose 1.9% to $66.43 a barrel. It was the highest closing level since August last year. WTI is up 16% so far this year.

Markets are worried that if military clashes break out, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for Middle Eastern crude exports. About one-third of global oil production passes through the strait. Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital, said, “The inability to resolve the core issues is increasing the likelihood of another military confrontation,” adding, “The U.S. buildup of major military assets and Iran’s military drills in the Strait of Hormuz suggest preparations are beginning for a second military clash.”

By Han Myung-hyun wise@hankyung.com