"Quantum-computing threat is already materializing… Bitcoin trading 20% below fair value"

As concerns spread across markets that advances in quantum computing could undermine Bitcoin (BTC)’s security framework, some experts say the quantum threat is already being priced in.

On the 20th (Korea time), Capriole Investments said in a report that “Bitcoin is currently trading at a discount to fair value that reflects the quantum-computing threat,” adding that “the market is currently trading at a price about 20% below fair value.” It also warned that “if related security upgrades are not implemented, the discount rate could widen further in the future.”

The core of Capriole’s argument is that if, at some point in the future, quantum computers become capable of breaking Bitcoin’s security framework, public keys could be exposed, potentially enabling the theft of large amounts of Bitcoin. The report said this could “shake the premise that trust in Bitcoin resides in its code,” and “undermine its case as a store of value as ‘digital gold.’”

Capriole in particular estimated that transitioning Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant security framework could take at least two years or more. The report noted that “because a phased process is required—including developer consensus and code integration, adoption by miners and exchanges, and users migrating wallets—it will be difficult to achieve quantum resistance in a short period,” adding that “the Bitcoin network must accelerate development to introduce a signature scheme designed to withstand quantum attacks, starting now.”